President Donald Trump possesses a “nuclear option” for bringing down U.S. gas prices, which have skyrocketed amid the ongoing Iran war, according to a new report.
The strategy is simple enough: limiting the amount of oil that the U.S. can export abroad. As the world’s top oil producer — generating a record 13.6 million barrels per day in 2025 — America could stand to boost domestic supply and ease pain at the pump by keeping its crude stateside.
This approach, which the Trump administration has so far opposed, would not be a cure-all, though. Its effects could prove limited, and it might risk tipping the global economy into recession, industry insiders told CNN.
But the White House is under mounting pressure to do something as domestic fuel costs soar, largely due to the U.S. and Iran’s dueling blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about 20 percent of the world’s oil before the war.
On Wednesday, oil prices hovered around $100-a-barrel, and the national average cost for a gallon of gas stood at $4.53 — up from $2.98 two days before the conflict erupted February 28, according to AAA.
Americans have spent $23.9 billion more on gas, year-over-year, in the past two months, Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at tracking site GasBuddy, said Monday.
The ‘nuclear option’
Trump could, in theory, curb U.S. oil exports, redirecting the millions of barrels sent overseas everyday back into the domestic economy.
Several nations have already gone this route. In March, China imposed limits on refined fuel exports. The following month, Russia barred companies from exporting gasoline until the end of July.
However, senior administration officials have made clear that this option is not being taken seriously. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Energy Secretary Chris Wright have both stated publicly that the White House is not considering such a move.
Still, some on Capitol Hill have pressed the administration to reevaluate.
“It’s common sense,” Rep. Ro Khanna, a California Democrat, told Fox News last month. “Why would we be sending our oil overseas when Americans are getting fleeced at the pump?… We should have our oil supply for Americans… That would bring down the price.”
Such a move would hardly be without precedent. In 1975, President Gerald Ford signed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act, which effectively prohibited most U.S. crude exports to shore up domestic supply. The ban, with limited exceptions, stayed in effect for four decades, until Congress lifted it in 2015.
A risky gambit
Barring U.S. companies from shipping oil overseas would carry significant risks, and any effect on domestic prices may fade over the long term, industry insiders told CNN.
Matt Smith, an oil analyst at analytics firm Kpler, explained that while the U.S. is a net exporter of oil, it still relies on imports — to the tune of 6.5 million barrels of crude each day.
U.S. refineries are optimized for processing a blend of foreign and domestic oil. For example, when producing gasoline and diesel, they often blend domestic light crude with heavier crudes from Latin America, the Middle East, and Canada.
Robert Auers, a manager of refined fuels at RBN Energy, noted that curbing oil exports might lower U.S. gas prices in the short term, but any gains could be outweighed by long‑term costs.
If the Trump administration capped oil exports, it could compel U.S. companies to scale back production, adding that some would likely be forced to shut down entirely.
“You could bring prices way down next week. But that impact would fade over time. A year from now, prices might not be any different than today,” Auers told CNN.
Some insiders expressed a readiness to take the gamble.
Vikas Dwivedi, a global energy strategist at Macquarie Group, believes that cutting oil exports would dramatically decrease gas prices in time for the midterm elections, adding that U.S. refiners could weather the storm.
“I can’t believe I’m saying this. For my entire career, I would have said, ‘A ban won’t work. Don’t do it. This is nonsense,’” Dwivedi told the outlet.
However, while U.S. consumers could reap benefits, many countries that rely on U.S. exports could face catastrophic consequences that could upend the global economy.
“Suddenly, you could be risking a global recession. And we can’t be insulated from that. It would come full circle,” Dwivedi said.
“You would start a whole new trade war,” Auers added. Bob McNally, the president of Rapidan Energy Group, noted: “We would permanently ruin our reputation as an arsenal of energy.”
