Sir Keir Starmer is fighting to save his increasingly threatened premiership as he faces mounting calls to resign over a bruising set of local elections.
The prime minister said he took responsibility for the results, which saw the Labour Party lose almost 1,500 councillor seats, but insisted he would not walk away.
He has faced relentless criticism of his leadership since he took office in July 2024, compounded by a string of U-turns and, more recently, the impact of the Peter Mandelson security vetting scandal.
The elections were widely touted as judgement day for the prime minister, but he was hit by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK snatching councils, some of which had been Labour for generations, in northern England, while Zack Polanski’s Green Party lured voters away from him in former urban strongholds, including taking control of some London authorities.
On Monday, Sir Keir will fight to save his political future in a major speech as he faces immense pressure from dozens of Labour MPs publicly calling for him to resign.
Sir Keir faced speculation about his position before the results came in, with The Times reporting energy secretary and former leader Ed Miliband having urged the prime minister to set out a timetable for his departure.
But deputy prime minister David Lammy warned his party not to play “pass the parcel” with the leadership in response to the election results.
However, the drubbing at the polls marks a perfect opportunity for others in the Labour Party – some of whom are said to have been planning their leadership challenges for months – to finally strike.
Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham has been widely considered the most popular candidate, and allies say he has a credible plan to return as a sitting MP, a prerequisite for the top job.
Sir Keir’s former deputy Angela Rayner is also a frontrunner, alongside the current health secretary Wes Streeting, while defence minister Al Carns is seen by some MPs as a leftfield candidate.
Ms Rayner piled the pressure on Sir Keir on Sunday when she sent an ultimatum to the prime minister, calling on him to “set out the change our country needs” as she warned Labour is facing its “last chance” after the disastrous set of election results.
Here, The Independent looks at each of the potential leadership candidates, while readers can also share your thoughts:
Andy Burnham
Popular among Labour MPs, party members and the general public, the mayor of Greater Manchester has been hinting at a leadership bid for months.
Recent YouGov polling puts Mr Burnham far ahead of any other Labour figure in popularity polls, with 34 per cent of Britons thinking he’d do a better job than Sir Keir.
Last year, Mr Burnham repeatedly failed to rule out a Labour leadership bid and has been regularly tipped as the leading candidate to take over should Sir Keir’s position as prime minister become untenable.
He was the focus of such rumours at the Labour Party conference last September, when he revealed that dozens of MPs were privately urging him to challenge the prime minister.
He is currently unable to launch an official bid as he is not a sitting MP, and has not made a public statement since Labour’s devastating defeat in the local elections.
Earlier this year, tensions came to a head when a parliamentary seat became available in the North West constituency of Gorton and Denton.
Mr Burnham put himself forward to run for Labour in the historically safe seat, but was blocked by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC).
Despite the government insisting the move was down to the potential cost of a Manchester mayoral election, critics accused Sir Keir and his allies of preventing the candidacy for factional reasons and out of fear of a leadership challenge.
However, allies say he has a plan to return as an MP. And his team is reported to have lined up an “impressive” candidate to replace him as mayor – potentially removing Sir Keir’s reason to block him.
Angela Rayner
Rumours about the Ashton-under-Lyne MP’s ambitions have been circling from the moment she resigned from Sir Keir’s cabinet last September when it was revealed she had underpaid stamp duty on her Brighton flat.
Once the prime minister’s No 2, Rayner is popular on the soft left of the party and has been named as one of the MPs most likely to stage a coup.
Earlier this year, she launched what was widely seen as her clearest challenge to Sir Keir, when she warned Labour is “running out of time” to deliver change and cannot “go through the motions in the face of decline”.
Rumours of a joint bid with Andy Burnham were sparked after she met with the Greater Manchester mayor amid rumblings of a challenge to Sir Keir.
Working with the Greater Manchester mayor could prove essential for Ms Rayner, who is trailing behind him in popularity polls, with only 15 per cent of voters believing she’d do a better job than Sir Keir.
But there have been mixed signals about whether the former deputy prime minister wanted to oust Sir Keir altogether, or just rejoin his cabinet.
In December, the prime minister described Ms Rayner as “hugely talented” and said he would like to see her return to his front bench.
And in what was seen as a last-ditch attempt to secure his position ahead of the elections, Sir Keir reportedly offered Rayner a spot back in his cabinet.
However, her intervention on Sunday appeared to show support for Mr Burnham, when she told the prime minister that blocking the mayor’s bid to stand in Gorton and Denton was a mistake.
In a stark warning to Sir Keir, she added: “Labour exists to make working people better off. That is not happening fast enough, and it needs to change, now.”
Either way, it is unlikely she will be able to make a move until after the investigation into her tax affairs has been settled, which is expected to be in the coming weeks.
Wes Streeting
The health secretary is considered to be the most likely candidate to replace Sir Keir from within the sitting cabinet.
He is understood to have the backing of enough Labour MPs to launch a leadership bid, having recruited more than 81 MPs – the minimum required to trigger a leadership election.
Sir Keir was reportedly alerted to Mr Streeting’s intentions when a Downing Street staff member was accidentally texted details of his bid, including the “five pillars” of his campaign and his “PFG”, meaning plan for government.
In the centre-right of the party, he is a charismatic cabinet minister who is able to connect with the public.
Chatter about a potential leadership bid grew louder towards the end of last year, amid a briefing war targeting the health secretary over his perceived ambitions to succeed Sir Keir.
He has previously voiced his concerns about the direction of the government, and hit out at a “toxic culture” in No 10 when the briefings against him were made public in November.
Earlier this year, as questions around Sir Keir’s future reached fever pitch, the health secretary took the controversial decision to publish communications between himself and Lord Mandelson, which contained severe criticism of the PM’s economic and Middle East policies.
The publication broke collective responsibility and would normally lead to a sacking, but Mr Streeting justified it by saying it was necessary to deal with “smears” that had been made about his relationship with the disgraced former Labour peer.
The main obstacle facing Mr Streeting is the perception among some Labour factions that he is too far to the right of the party, and the general feeling that he does not have enough backing to launch a successful bid.
His public popularity ratings are also low, with only 13 per cent of voters thinking he’d do a better job than Sir Keir.
Catherine West
Despite the loudest rumblings coming from Ms Rayner, Mr Streeting and Mr Burnham, it is a lesser-known backbench MP who has become the first and only Labour member to threaten to launch a challenge against Sir Keir.
In a surprising intervention on Saturday, the MP for Hornsey and Friern Barnet, Catherine West, said the cabinet must “reorganise themselves” and put forward their “best communicator” to replace the prime minister.
If that did not happen she would seek the 80 names needed to trigger a contest, she said.
Ms West, who was sacked by Sir Keir as a junior minister in the Foreign Office, later said she would wait to hear what the prime minister has to say in his speech on Monday morning before launching her bid.
Rather than putting herself forward as a serious candidate to be prime minister, however, she has made clear her campaign is an attempt to force the cabinet to get behind a minister who would move against Sir Keir.
But MPs on Labour’s left have warned against her plan, arguing it could result in a Cabinet “stitch-up” rather than allowing members to vote on the next leader.
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband has emerged as an unexpected contender to be the prime minister, more than 10 years since he led the party to defeat in the 2015 general election.
But in his time away from the leadership, the energy secretary has carved a niche for himself as the party’s top advocate for green energy and net zero.
Surprisingly popular among young people on social media, speculation has been rife that Mr Miliband is preparing an attempt to make a comeback as leader.
The recent Mandelson scandal has seen him grow increasingly critical of the government, telling broadcasters last week that he had raised concerns about the appointment with David Lammy at the time.
A Miliband supporter told The Independent recently: “He has the energy and enthusiasm. He is loved by younger members of the party. He is a new man from when he was last leader.”
Despite the noise, Mr Miliband has denied he is eyeing a leadership bid, and polling also suggests only 13 per cent of voters think he’d do a better job than the current prime minister.
Al Carns
A surprise candidate is emerging to replace Sir Keir Starmer: new MPs among the 2024 cohort are pushing for former Royal Marines commander now defence minister Al Carns to put his hat in the ring.
One member of the 2024 intake told The Independent: “Why are we turning once again to the same familiar faces to solve problems they were involved in creating?
“If we want to demonstrate genuine change to the public, we need a fresh face leading that change.
“Members of the 2024 intake are still hopeful of persuading Al Carns to stand should there be a contest, and support for that view appears to be growing.”
It is understood that a leadership team is being put together to support Mr Carns if he decides to make a move.
