Andy Burnham has won the decisive by-election in Makerfield, becoming the constituency’s latest MP and prompting questions of what the UK might look like with the popular former mayor as the next leader of the Labour Party.
The veteran politician has previously confirmed his intention to compete in any Labour leadership election, challenging Sir Keir Starmer, following his return to Westminster.
An MP from 2001 to 2017, and holding three ministerial positions in that time, the move to London won’t be unfamiliar for the Liverpool-born politician – but the circumstances felt very novel.
Mr Burnham presented his campaign in the Wigan-adjacent seat of Makerfield not just as a vote for its residents, but to “change Labour” and potentially see him lead the country as prime minister.
In a speech following his win, Mr Burnham said: “Everyone knows that politics isn’t working. Everyone can feel that the country isn’t where it should be. Tonight could, just could, be the turning point.”
He added: “I do say to my own party: this is a final chance to change.
“This is what people said directly to me on the hundreds of doorsteps that I stood on. We must hear it, we must act upon it and we must get it right. There will be no second chance.”
Polling experts have put Mr Burnham most likely to win in any leadership contest, beating the prime minister and expected rivals, Wes Streeting and Angela Rayner, in popularity.
Here’s what his victory could mean for the country:
Taking Manchesterism to Westminster
At the heart of Mr Burnham’s plan for Britain is ‘Manchesterism’, a political vision that, in short, brings together elements of devolution and nationalisation.
Informed by his time as mayor of Manchester, Mr Burnham has called for greater powers and funding decisions to be given to regional leaders who are best-placed to understand the needs of their community.
This often includes the power to control public services, as characterised by Manchester’s successful ‘Bee Network’. Comprising bus and tram routes across the city, the development of the scheme saw ownership of the infrastructure wrested from several private companies in a move that gave local decision-makers full control.
More widely, the city’s combined authority has also pledged a £1 billion “good growth fund” to regeneration, employment, housing and homelessness projects. The city’s devolved powers are “pioneering”, Mr Burnham said earlier this year, and are thought to be a key part in Manchester’s 3.1 per cent annual economic growth since 2015, making it the leading UK city.
This approach could be expanded on the national stage, Mr Burnham has indicated, through both the nationalisation of public services and the decentralisation of political decision-making. In effect, the latter means taking some decisions away from Westminster, and giving councils and combined authorities “the control [they] need”.
Speaking to Channel 4 News in May, Mr Burnham said “deindustrialisation and privatisation” of Britain had left areas like Makerfield “without good jobs and people unable to afford the basics”.
He said: “We need a different path completely. What is that path? Put more things back under stronger public control: energy, housing, water, transport.
“I’ve done that with buses in Greater Manchester. I was the first to do it. Margaret Thatcher deregulated them … and then they just work for the private shareholders and not for the paying public.
“I put them back under public control with the £2 fares, so you take that principle and apply it to energy and apply to the water – that’s what I think we need to do.”
Economy and taxation
In a similar vein, Mr Burnham has said he is committed to “strong public control and direction” over the UK’s investment strategy to drive economic growth. Responding to former prime minister Tony Blair’s controversial essay last month, he said Manchester’s growth did not “come about by leaving things to the market”.
Elsewhere, the new Makerfield MP has said he is committed to chancellor Rachel Reeves fiscal rules, which are designed to bring government debt levels down.
On tax, Mr Burnham has also recommitted to the Labour pledge not to raise income tax, VAT or national insurance this parliament. However, he has indicated he would “develop a policy” to address concerns over the controversial freeze on the income tax personal allowance which has dragged thousands of workers into paying more since 2021.
Other taxation stances Mr Burnham has indicated he holds are:
- Replacing council tax with a land value tax
- A plan to look “in detail” at a wealth tax
- Scrapping inheritance tax in favour of a social care levy
- Cutting employers’ national insurance contributions for smaller employers
- A 20 per cent cut in business rates for small or independent businesses
Brexit
Mr Burnham has said he will not try to return the UK to the EU, arguing that the country would be stuck in a “permanent rut if we’re just constantly arguing”.
His comments came after his potential leadership rival Mr Streeting said the UK should rejoin the EU in a key intervention after resigning as health secretary. Mr Burnham said: “My view is that Brexit has been damaging, but I also believe the last thing we should do right now is rerun those arguments.”
He added that he wanted the national spotlight to be on Makerfield and the North-West during his by-election campaign, but added: “I want to say sorry to the residents of the Makerfield constituency, for the circus that is about to arrive in town and some of the inconvenience they will experience as a result”.
The path to Number 10 is by no means guaranteed for Mr Burnham should he win the local contest. A leadership election would first require either Sir Keir to step down or for a challenger to amass enough support from Labour MPs.
The former mayor has not indicated how fast he plans to move upon his return to Westminster. However, his decision to lay out his political vision in such detail over the past few months indicates that his sales pitch to the Labour MPs, members and the nation has already begun.
