Republican Senator Lindsey Graham’s sudden death has sent shockwaves through Washington.
The passing of the Trump ally from South Carolina means that the Senate Republican conference will be down one lawmaker at a time when Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell has already been hospitalized. McConnell, who was set to retire at the end of this year, has given few indications about his wellbeing.
Republicans have only 53 seats and are hoping to hold onto a slim majority in November’s midterms for Trump’s final two years as president.
They do not appear to run the risk of losing the seat in either Kentucky or South Carolina – but the president’s unpopularity continues to climb thanks to the war in Iran and a cost-of-living crisis. Races in states that Trump won by double digits like Alaska, Texas and Ohio look in jeopardy.
Graham was running for re-election in South Carolina, and seemed all but likely to win re-election in the Palmetto State. Throughout his career, Graham ran the risk of losing a primary to a right-wing challenger. But Trump’s endorsement insulated the four-term Republican. Last month, he easily won his primary for another term.
Trump won South Carolina by almost 18 points in 2024, meaning that even in a midterm year, the seat is likely to stay in Republican hands.
But Graham’s death means that South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster will have to nominate a replacement for him in the Senate, and the state party will need to field a new nominee for the upper chamber on the ballot.
Under South Carolina law, if a party nominee dies, is disqualified after their nomination or resigns for legitimate nonpolitical reasons, “the vacancy must be filled in a special primary election.”
The filing period begins the second Tuesday after the nominee’s death. In this case, that would be July 21.
It is unclear whether McMaster would want to nominate a caretaker senator to hold the seat until the end of the year or if he would nominate a chosen favorite to give them a head start in a primary. In 2013, then-Gov. Nikki Haley nominated Representative Tim Scott to fill the seat of Senator Jim DeMint, who resigned his spot.
Scott remains in the Senate to this day, ran for president briefly and is chairman of the Senate Banking Committee.
But because Graham’s term was coming to an end, it might be easier to pick someone who would briefly hold the seat and allow a primary to play itself out.
Last month, Republicans held a bruising primary to replace McMaster as governor. Trump initially endorsed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette, who cleared the initial primary. But as the race headed to a runoff, Trump endorsed both her an Attorney General Alan Wilson, who ultimately won the primary.
So far, Wilson’s father, long-time Rep. Joe Wilson, has taken himself out of the running.
“I was grateful to speak with President Trump today reminiscing about our mutual friend, Senator Lindsey Graham,” he said on X. “I assured him my goal is to remain in the House to keep his two-vote majority for the American people!!!
Other potential nominees include Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), a member of the hardline House Freedom Caucus. Norman ran for governor but did not make it to the runoff. Still, on Sunday, he told Bloomberg Government that he would make an announcement on Tuesday about running for the seat and asked Trump for an endorsement.
But Norman faces a long shot, given he endorsed Haley against Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary and has perpetually made demands of Trump during the deliberation for the “One Big, Beautiful Bill,” before he ultimately acquiesced. Norman also placed third in the Republican primary for governor, winning only about 17 percent of the vote.
Lastly, there is Republican Representative Nancy Mace, who like Graham, tried to distance herself from Trump after January 6, but then strongly supported the president. Mace distinguished herself since the 2024 presidential election for two things: trying to prevent Rep. Sarah McBride (D-Del.), the first openly transgender person elected to Congress from using women’s restrooms, and for signing onto a discharge petition to force a vote to release files related to Jeffrey Epstein.
On Sunday, Mace posted a clip from The Godfather Part III, wherein Michael Corleone, played by Al Pacino, saying “Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in.” Mace later told Fox News that she would consider running.
“I’m never going to shut the door,” she said. “You only live once, and if the people of South Carolina would like me to serve in that capacity, I’ll certainly take a look at it.”
But Mace’s erratic behavior and pugnacious style alienated aleinated not only many Democrats but a host of Republicans. Trump refused to endorse her in the primary for governor and she wound up placing fifth in the primary.
