At the Plaid Cymru conference in February, the mood among delegates, voters and lobbyists was jubilant. And with good reason.
The latest polls predict that the Welsh nationalists are the frontrunners to win the Senedd elections in May, which could overturn almost three decades of Labour rule.
But Plaid is well aware that the main challenge is not coming from Labour. Leader Rhun ap Iorweth has struck a defiant tone, warning Welsh voters that it is now a “two-horse race” between his party and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, which is also targeting disillusioned Labour supporters who are ready to break years of tradition and vote for another party.
Speaking to The Independent, Mr ap Iorweth said: ‘I think we need to be honest that we’re facing a global phenomenon here, the growth of the populist right – it’s something that is causing challenges from Trump in America to countries across Europe. It’s important we recognise that we’re not immune from that and as it happens, it’s a party called Reform that is leading the growth of the political right here.
“I think there’s a real threat on a number of different levels to the kind of government that we have,” he said. “There’s a threat to the question of Welsh nationhood and democracy, because while Reform might say today that they accept devolution, we know that they have no loyalty to devolution. It’s the kind of politics that will change on a whim, there’s a lack of programme there to govern.”
Reform UK’s stance on devolution has been confusing at best. In September, their first Senedd politician said the party had not ruled out scrapping the Welsh parliament. Mr Farage later dismissed these suggestions, but a spokesperson later reiterated they “would not rule anything out”.
Plaid Cymru strikes a drastically different tone. Since it was formed in 1925, it has campaigned with a pro-independence and Welsh nationalist agenda, and Mr ap Iorweth has promised to push for further devolved powers if he is elected as first minister. In his speech to the conference hall, he said that he would “stand up to Keir Starmer” and called for a reset of the relationship between Cardiff and Westminster.
“The fact that Wales could be on the cusp of rejecting Labour in a dramatic way after a century or more of domination tells you that something has happened, a penny has dropped in the minds of people’s attitude towards Wales,” he said.
“The difference between having a Plaid Cymru first minister is I will be unequivocal of where my loyalty lies – it’s with the people of Wales. I don’t have to keep things nicely balanced and not rock the boat out of fear of risking my relationship with my boss in London. I don’t have a boss in London, my boss are the people of Wales. That lack of transparency with the relationship between the first minister and Labour prime minister is holding Wales back.”
Previously, Plaid Cymru worked alongside the Welsh Labour government in co-operation agreements across various policy areas, but it withdrew from its most recent partnership in 2024.
Dr Dewi Jones, the prosecution’s lead expert in the criminal case against Lucy Letby, is among those in attendance at the conference, and delighted at the large crowds. In recent months, he has been out canvassing for Plaid Cymru and has been pleasantly surprised by the positive response.
“We have had people repeat the slogan ‘a new leadership for Wales’ – that’s when you know the message is getting out,” he said.
Outlining his ambitions for the first 100 days in power, Mr ap Iorweth has vowed to improve education and the healthcare, as well as bringing back a Welsh Development Agency to support businesses. Wales is currently the poorest of the UK nations, with a 2025 report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation finding that 22 per cent of its population live in poverty, with the cost of living cited as one of the key concerns for voters.
Despite immigration policy being decided by Westminster and not the Senedd, it remains a key political battleground for every party. Reform’s Welsh leader Dan Thomas has pledged to bring an end to Wales’ Nation of Sanctuary status, despite 91 per cent of its funding going to Ukrainian refugees.
“We know that people have been made to believe that easy answers on immigration will solve all our ills but this is based on the politics of disinformation,” Mr ap Iorweth said. “I don’t believe in unlimited open borders, every country controls its borders, successive UK governments have made a mess in dealing with migration.
“The difference is Reform are trying to exploit that, and Plaid Cymru will stand up for decency and hope and humanity – it is part of our DNA as a party and that has never been more important in our history.”
Fringe events included talks on migration within Wales, while clashes on immigration with Reform is what is believed to have led to Plaid Cymru’s success in October’s Caerphilly by-election.
The latest YouGov projections indicate Labour is on track for disastrous results in Wales, suggesting that their vote share would fall to just 13 per cent. While this poll suggests Sir Keir’s party are only likely to pick up 12 seats, the More in Common’s MRP poll, which surveyed 2,500 people in Wales, has stood their chances at 24 seats.
In both cases, they are projected to trail behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK, and a far cry from the 49 seats required for a majority.
Darren Price, a Plaid Cymru councillor in Carmarthenshire, is among those who have been a party member for decades.
Asked how the mood has shifted, he said: “There’s a positive feeling, it’s been obvious since the autumn that we’re building up towards something historic we hope. I also think we’ve been careful not to think it’s a done deal.
“It is great to see the place busy and there is a confidence in what we hope to achieve, and that’s what is coming across.”
Addressing voters who remained on the fence, he said: “There is only one party on the ballot paper that has the interests of Wales at its centre. Everyone else on the ballot is a London party. Devolution is real and if we want devolution to work, we need to vote for Plaid Cymru.”
