Sir Keir Starmer is weighing up whether he can stay on as prime minister with a growing expectation amongst allies that he could announce a timetable for departure on Monday.
Sir Keir has spent the weekend at his grace-and-favour residence Chequers with his wife Victoria and his closest allies considering his political future.
A number of cabinet ministers told him frankly on Friday that he needed to set out a clear plan to step down, but Downing Street was insistent that Sir Keir would continue to fight on.
Monday will see Andy Burnham return to Westminster fresh from his victory in the Makerfield by-election. Labour MPs have been invited to a photo call with the former Greater Manchester mayor to celebrate Mr Burnham’s resounding victory over Reform UK.
Mr Burnham is reportedly keen to wait to become prime minister in September after summer recess rather than be crowned imminently. A delayed handover would allow Sir Keir Starmer “to secure his legacy”, one source told The Independent.
But some Labour MPs are anxious that the transfer of power takes place sooner, and have suggested as early as mid-July.
So what are the options ahead if Sir Keir announces his resignation on Monday?
An Andy Burnham coronation
If Sir Keir announced his resignation, a Labour leadership contest would be triggered with Mr Burnham needing the backing of 20 per cent of the party’s MPs. There are 403 Labour MPs, so the support of 81 would be needed.
A contest could also be launched even if Sir Keir did not resign, so long as Mr Burnham got the required support.
Once triggered, other candidates could join if they also had 81 backers.
But if Sir Keir decided not to stand, and no other Labour candidates reached 81 backers, then Mr Burnham would be the only candidate and would become prime minister.
The Burnham camp are reportedly keen that there is a planned transition between Sir Keir and the MP for Makerfield, allowing time for Mr Burnham to prepare for office.
If Sir Keir announces he will step down in September, this could give more time for a more orderly hand over. Chief secretary to the prime minister Darren Jones has reportedly already met with Louise Haigh, the former transport secretary who is a key Burnham supporter.
But some Labour MPs are keen that – if the keys to No 10 are passed to Mr Burnham – it happens quickly to avoid a public, potentially damaging, debate about the future of the Labour party.
An open contest for party leadership
In an alternative scenario, the former health secretary Wes Streeting or another challenger could get enough nominations to go up against Mr Burnham in a leadership challenge.
If the candidates get enough MP support, and also nominations from at least five per cent of all local party branches or at least three party-affiliated groups, then there would be a vote of Labour members.
The timing of this vote would be set by the party’s national executive committee. Party members and affiliated trade union supporters vote by ranking the candidates in order of preference.
If one candidate received more than 50 per cent of the first preferences then they win the contest. If this doesn’t happen, then the worst performing candidate gets eliminated. Votes are then transferred from this candidate to the remaining options until someone gets more than half of the votes.
On Friday, Sir Keir appeared to be talking to cabinet ministers about what arguments he would make in a leadership contest, telling them he would fight to stay as prime minister. However the mood music changed over the weekend, with allies of the prime minister believing he is now resigned to the fact he will have to step down.
