A Reform-led government in the UK that seeks to “double down on Brexit” could act as an “accelerator” towards Irish reunification, former taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said.
Ireland’s current Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan also suggested that a rise in English nationalism could influence the debate on Northern Ireland’s constitutional future and potentially bring forward the timing of any future referenda on unity.
Mr O’Callaghan also restated his view that organisations such as the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) could be retained in a united Ireland, and could work alongside Ireland’s Garda, much like separate police forces operate in different areas of England.
Both men made the comments as they took part in discussions at an event in Belfast focused on the future relationship between the island of Ireland and Britain and the prospect of Irish unification.
Former Fine Gael leader Mr Varadkar said the Brexit referendum had acted as an “accelerator for change” when it came to the debate on Northern Ireland’s future.
He said the election of a Reform UK government could have a similar effect, especially if the party pressed for a UK withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR).
Such a move would pose profound questions for Northern Ireland, given much of the Good Friday peace agreement of 1998 is underpinned by the convention.
“I think there is a possibility that an accelerator could be a UK government led by Reform, led by Nigel Farage, that doubles down on Brexit, that takes this view that Brexit failed because it wasn’t done properly, and looks for a harder separation from the EU, and reopens these questions around ECHR, where the checks are done, and so on,” said Mr Varadkar.
“That’s a possibility, and it’s a possibility that might be closer than we think.”
Mr Varadkar said he considered a Reform-led government a “possibility” rather than a “probability”.
“I think, in the end, the UK won’t vote for Reform,” the former Irish premier said, as he suggested Andy Burnham may call, and win, a snap general election if elected Labour leader.
“I’m not predicting this, but I think we have to consider the possibility that a UK election, a UK Westminster election, which we were certain was going to be in 2029, now could happen in 2027 and there’s a possibility, although not a probability, that that could result in a Reform-led government or Reform/Conservative coalition, and we have to think about the consequences of that,” he said.
Mr Varadkar’s successor as Fine Gael leader, Simon Harris, recently announced that his party would set out its vision for a united Ireland later this year.
“I was very happy about it, and I’m very glad to see that Fine Gael will be active in this space and part of this debate, so it was welcome,” Mr Varadkar told the Future of these Islands event.
Fianna Fáil TD Mr O’Callaghan said he was not concerned that Fine Gael had made that move on the issue of reunification.
“I think it’s healthy that political parties in the south are preparing and discussing this issue,” he said.
Under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement, a border poll on reunification should be called in Northern Ireland by the incumbent Northern Ireland Secretary when he/she believes there is evidence that public opinion in the region has shifted in favour of constitutional change. In that event, a simultaneous poll would also be held in the Republic of Ireland.
Successive UK governments have consistently declined to specify publicly what criteria will be applied when measuring public sentiment on the issue.
Outgoing prime minister Sir Keir Starmer has previously insisted the question of calling a referendum is “not even on the horizon”.
Mr O’Callaghan published his own paper in 2021 setting out his ideas on what a united Ireland could look like. Those included retaining a role for Stormont and the retention of the PSNI as a stand-alone police service for the region.
On Thursday, the justice minister said political events were likely to be inherently unpredictable in the coming 10 years.
Asked by reporters if he believed referenda could be held by the end of this decade, Mr O’Callaghan said that could be the case if Reform UK came to power.
“There could be (a poll in the next four years) if Reform came to power, if they decided that they wanted to get out of the European Convention on Human Rights and if that required them to dispense with Northern Ireland, that could occur, but I can’t predict the future,” he said.
“I don’t know a date as to when there will be a border poll, but I think it is worthwhile having discussions like this as we have had today.”
Mr O’Callaghan said there was an onus on future Irish governments to start planning for constitutional change.
He acknowledged that would create a “sensitive political issue” for the authorities in Dublin amid concerns about antagonising unionists in Northern Ireland.
The TD said he felt the way to address those sensitivities would be to initially frame the question in the context of the Republic of Ireland and its citizens, rather than broadening the debate to the whole island.
“I think a future Irish government is going to have to prepare for constitutional change,” he said.
“Obviously that decision and the process by which an Irish government prepares for it is a sensitive political issue in itself because we have to be conscious not represented in this room (the event venue in Belfast) is a significant population within Northern Ireland whose political representatives don’t want to engage with this issue.
“And how does an Irish government put in place a preparatory scheme which isn’t seen by unionism as being threatening or an attempt to steamroller them into something they don’t want to do, and that is a sensitive issue.”
On the potential of confining the planning to the Republic of Ireland in the first instance, Mr O’Callaghan added: “That is a sensitive way for the Irish state to put out what it is we’re prepared to do to achieve Irish reunification, and I think that could be seen as something that isn’t threatening or insensitive to other people. There are people in this room who may be completely unsupportive of that and they may say, ‘well, why aren’t people in Northern Ireland having a say in the future of our island?’.
“But I think it’s a sensitive way of starting the discussion by an Irish government in the south.”
SDLP leader Claire Hanna welcomed the contributions made during Thursday’s event at the MAC Belfast.
Afterwards she said the rise of English nationalism “looms quite large” in the debate on Irish unity.
“The prospect of a Reform-led or Reform-infused UK government is serious, and every single speaker acknowledged the reality of that and the potential it would have,” she told reporters.
“Both they (Reform UK) could decide they just wanted to dispense with this region, or some of their platforms and proposals – things like leaving the European Convention on Human Rights – could create a challenge and create a crisis. That is why we are arguing for prudent planning.”
