Russia’s aerial attacks increase the risk of wider escalation UK statement to the OSCE

Thank you, Mr Chair.

Overnight, on 18–19 July, the Russian Federation launched 41 missiles and 125 drones against Ukraine in one of the largest ballistic missile attacks on Kyiv since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Ukrainian air defences intercepted 18 missiles and 108 drones, but nevertheless strikes and falling debris affected residential buildings, a supermarket, a dormitory and other civilian infrastructure.

Across the country, these attacks killed at least 20 civilians. Those interceptions did save lives, but we should be clear Ukraine should not need to deploy air-defence systems to protect apartment blocks, supermarkets, hospitals and schools. Russia’s reckless use of drones and missiles has repeatedly resulted in civilian casualties and damage to civilian infrastructure.

And the legal framework is not ambiguous. Parties must always distinguish between civilians and combatants, and between civilian objects and military objectives. Attacks may be directed against only military objectives. Indiscriminate attacks are prohibited, as are attacks expected to cause incidental civilian harm excessive in relation to the concrete and direct military advantage anticipated.

But Russia’s aerial campaign also creates risks beyond Ukraine. On 29 May, during a Russian attack on Ukraine, a Russian drone entered Romanian airspace and struck a ten-storey apartment building in Galați. Two civilians were injured and approximately 70 residents evacuated. This is not a theoretical risk. A live weapons system crossed sovereign airspace and struck civilians in a NATO country.

Moldova has likewise experienced repeated Russian drone incursions. Furthermore, on 13 July, a Shahed-type drone crossed into Moldovan territory and exploded near the village of Copanca during Russian attacks on southern Ukraine. No casualties were reported, but the incident again demonstrated the consistent danger posed to neighbouring states. And NATO condemned Russia’s reckless behaviour in both cases.

This Forum exists to reduce misunderstanding, miscalculation and unintended escalation. Yet every Russian missile or drone launched near an international border could create an uncertain track. Every missile or drone launched near an international border could and has resulted in a possible airspace violation. Every Russian missile or drone launched near an international border could result in the scrambling of military aircraft, further escalating the risk of miscalculation.

Stronger European air and missile defence, surveillance and coordination are therefore necessary, defensive and proportionate responses to a threat solely created by Russia’s aggression, not acts of hostility.

Air defence, however, treats the symptoms rather than the cause. Russia must cease its reckless attacks, comply fully with distinction, proportionality and precautions, prevent further airspace violations and communicate promptly and honestly when incidents occur.

The greatest contribution Russia could make to European security would be to end its aggression, agree an immediate ceasefire and engage seriously towards a just and lasting peace