It’s too late for the Clacton by-election triggered by Nigel Farage to be cancelled – even though all of the main parties are boycotting it, according to a veteran elections expert.
The Reform UK leader is likely to win by a huge majority, Sir John Curtice predicted.
The Labour Party, the Tories, the Liberal Democrats and Restore Britain have all said they are boycotting the by-election, leaving the Greens, independent candidates and Count Binface to contest it.
Mr Farage announced he was quitting as an MP as accusations mounted over two controversial unregistered donations to him.
Mr Farage was already being investigated by the Commons standards watchdog over an undeclared £5m gift from Reform donor Christopher Harborne before he entered Parliament, and he appeared to confirm he faced another probe over security for him funded by fraudster George Cottrell.
Prime minister Sir Keir Starmer branded Mr Farage’s move “a desperate stunt”, adding: “It’s obvious why he’s doing it – he is up to his neck in sleaze.”
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey called for all parties to boycott the by-election and for the government to block Mr Farage’s resignation until the Standards Commissioner finishes investigating him.
Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch said: “We will not be standing a candidate in the fake by-election that Farage is causing to distract people from what is happening.
“We need to let that investigation run its course.”
The Green Party says local members in Clacton will decide whether to put up a candidate but a spokesperson said: “We are a political party – we contest elections”.
Technically an MP cannot resign but must make themselves ineligible by being appointed by the Treasury as a steward of the Chiltern Hundreds, which is a nominal Crown office.
Prof Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, told The Independent that Reform UK chief whip Lee Anderson would be likely to move the writ for the by-election within hours, and once the Commons Speaker has moved the writ, the returning officer for Clacton had to go ahead with the poll.
He would have about a week’s discretion over the date of the the election, he said.
“Farage is no longer an MP, but he wants to get back into the Commons, so he has to stand,” Prof Curtice said.
“So he he can’t pull out now, he can’t cancel his resignation.”
Prof Curtice said the by-election was likely to be similar to that of David Davis in 2008, which became a “damp squib” because only minor candidates stood and Mr Davis won 72 per cent of the vote.
Mr Davis, who was shadow home secretary, called a by-election in his Haltemprice and Howden constituency in protest at Tony Blair’s plans to allow terror suspects to be held in detention without being charged for up to 42 days.
But none of the other main parties stood against him and he essentially was a lone candidate against the Monster Raving Looney Party candidate.
Prof Curtice said if that happened again and if there were no independent or Green candidates, Mr Farage’s vote share could even be over 90 per cent.
If Mr Farage was the only candidate, he would be elected unopposed.
