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The war between Israel and Iran has once again raised urgent questions about where decades of conflict and instability in the Middle East are heading.
In the wake of US strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites – and with a fragile ceasefire just about holding – the geopolitical ground feels more brittle than ever.
Reporting from Tel Aviv, I received a flood of questions from Independent readers: Can Trump’s ceasefire survive? What do Israelis really think of Netanyahu?
The Q&A that followed was wide-ranging. Readers challenged the motives behind US actions, the future of Nato, and whether any meaningful peace is still possible.
Many also asked whether leaders like Keir Starmer are prepared to act independently of Washington.
There were several moral questions, too: Can there truly be a ceasefire when Netanyahu thrives on chaos? Has Israel abandoned peace? Is the two-state solution now just a diplomatic illusion?
Here are some of your questions from the Ask Me Anything event – and my best attempt to answer them, as directly and honestly as I can.
Q: Do you think America left Nato because it knew Nato wouldn’t approve of an attack like this? Was this all planned?
Charl
A: The US is very much still in Nato and has successfully forced the Europeans and Canada to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP by 2035 and 3.5 per cent in the shorter term. This goes some way toward equalising the uneven burden of Nato on the US taxpayer.
The US did know in advance about the Israeli attacks on Iran. Nato has no role at all in Iran and offered no significant view on it.
Q: Could the US invoke Nato Article 5 if it were attacked?
Real European
A: Article 5 has only been invoked once – by the US after 9/11. The UK did not invoke it when the Falklands were invaded by Argentina, possibly because the US (and perhaps others) did not see the invasion of UK territory that far from the mainland as a serious enough issue.
Pete Hegseth has been equivocal on Article 5. This may explain why the EU and Canada are getting their defence systems in order, to make them functional independently of the US.
Q: Does Starmer have any vision beyond following the US, especially Trump?
Perplexed
A: Starmer seems to combine the ability to stroke Trump’s fragile ego with an understanding that Europe, the UK, and Canada will be stronger if they are capable of acting independently of the US militarily.
Politically, he must know that the UK would be better off economically and strategically back in the EU – but he doesn’t have the pluck to say so.
Q: Is a long-term ceasefire or ‘hudna’ ideologically unacceptable to Israel?
Commonsense
A: Generally, Israel would like to have a “long-term ceasefire.” Under Netanyahu, who is tactical, not strategic in his thinking, a “ceasefire” allows for the continuation of the status quo, which means continued expansion into the West Bank.
On Gaza, it’s clear that a “ceasefire” could naturally lead to a mass exodus of people from the enclave, as the means of survival have been turned to rubble.
Q: What concrete conditions would be needed for a durable Iran–Israel ceasefire, and how likely is that?
BigDogSmallBrain
A: Iran will be asked to prove that it isn’t developing a nuclear weapon. Israel will have to hold off on planning any future attacks. But both sides also know:
- More attacks on Iran make the regime vulnerable to change, and
- Netanyahu knows Israelis were stunned by the missiles that did get through – and the economy, along with his regime, may not have survived a protracted conflict.
Q: Didn’t the attack on Iran just accelerate their nuclear ambitions?
Rogue
A: Yes to all of that – but remember, Iran was probably developing nukes already, and as you say, will definitely want to now.
Q: Is a two-state solution still possible, given the current state of Gaza and Israeli settlements?
Carolan
A: Not really – or not without gigantic “concessions” from Israel and, from the Palestinians, a decision to give up on the “right of return.” Some people are advocating a one-state solution, but that would undermine the nature of Jewish Israel.
Q: What do Israelis think of Netanyahu’s actions?
Benitas
A: A poll by Channel 12 shows a small bump for Netanyahu. A poll taken after a ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Iran, ending 12 days of war that are largely viewed as a resounding success for Israel, shows that the current pro-Netanyahu coalition bloc would win only 49 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. The opposition would win 61, while the Arab parties, who have largely stayed out of coalitions, have 10, according to The Times of Israel.
So Bibi’s hold is just as weak, but it exists. No Israelis I spoke to offered any understanding of what the population in Gaza must be going through, even after they had experienced Iranian missile attacks, despite 95 per cent of Iran’s missiles being shot down.
Q: If Israel and Iran continue fighting, would Trump let them go it alone?
Bob
A: He might. He’s shown impatience with both, but would have no choice but to join in again if US assets were seriously endangered.
These questions and answers were part of an ‘Ask Me Anything’ hosted by Sam Kiley at 12pm BST on Thursday, 26 June. Some of the questions and answers have been edited for this article. You can read the full discussion in the comments section of the original article.
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