Terence Crawford returns to the ring this weekend for the first time in over a year, stepping up to super middleweight to face undisputed champion Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez.
Doubts have already been raised over Crawford’s chances as he prepares to jump up two weight classes after just one fight at super welterweight, but inactivity is another factor that may work against ‘Bud’.
Since 2019 Crawford has fought just once a year, and his contest against Canelo will be the third consecutive fight to be staged at a different weight class.
Can Crawford shake off the ring rust to emerge victorious this Saturday?
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Terence Crawford’s rusty performance against Israil Madrimov
Our most recent look at Crawford was his narrow unanimous decision win over Israil Madrimov, the previously undefeated Uzbekistani, last August. Only 11 fights into his professional career, but with over 300 fights as an amateur, Madrimov more than gave ‘Bud’ a fight.
In fact, he was the first man to take Crawford 12 rounds since 2016, with the American edging the score cards 116-112, 115-113, and 115-113.
Crawford’s performance against Madrimov also raised the question of how he coped with the additional weight, with some critics claiming he looked slower carrying another 7lbs.
His lack of activity, the additional weight, and the slowing down that age forces upon us all are road blocks to Crawford’s potential success against Canelo and he will have to perform better than he did against Madrimov to get his hand raised this weekend.
Canelo’s own activity outpaces Terence Crawford
Known as ‘the face of boxing’, Canelo Alvarez has settled into the rhythm of fighting close to Cinco de Mayo in the spring, before returning to action in September, close to Mexican Independence Day.
Whilst boxing around those major public holidays certainly helps commercially, it may also give Canelo a boost when it comes to ring-readiness. Since 2021 Canelo has been fighting at least twice a year, an average that continues back to 2012.
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Crawford’s own inactivity may not be costly on a personal level – he could find that he performs better with longer to rest and prepare between fights. However, the younger Canelo may find advantage by being in a better rhythm.
Could a lack of a tune-up and Terence Crawford’s age prove costly?
Much of the discussion around Crawford’s chances centre on currently unknown variables. A tune-up fight would have enabled Crawford to gather information ahead of the Canelo contest, getting some rounds in, whilst also boosting his experience of fighting slightly heavier.
Of course, if Crawford produced a safe-yet-lacklustre performance against a smaller name, that same criticism would persist.
Just two weeks after his fight with Canelo, Crawford will turn 38. Over two decades of boxing will take its toll, and he no longer has to struggle with cutting weight due to being able to put on another 14lbs to fight at super middleweight, Crawford’s powers of recovery may not be what they used to be.
Crawford’s inactivity may in fact be the best approach to get as much out of his career as possible; rather than burning out quicker, ‘Bud’ will hope to increase his chances of winning fights.
One fight a year not atypical in modern boxing
Crawford is not alone in scaling down his appearances in the ring. Champions recognise they have a lot to lose, and as such, carefully select their opponents, balancing risk and reward. Undisputed heavyweight champion Oleksandr Usyk has only fought twice more than Crawford in the past five years, not including the upcoming Canelo bout.
In the modern boxing era, star names much prefer to take high-money fights twice a year, rather than potentially face lesser opponents more often. Naoya Inoue is a rare example of a big name trying to box as often as possible, with the super bantamweight champion looking to fight four times this year.
Crawford is certainly an extreme, but with talks of fighting Canelo dating back many years, it makes sense that ‘Bud’ held back from arranging bouts in case of derailing the mega-fight.
Terence Crawford’s inactivity self-inflicted by ability
Crawford likely would have preferred to fight more often, especially during his welterweight days, but found himself denied by boxing politics. Not wanting to risk their own fighters against a generational talent, Premier Boxing Champions decided to matchmake their welterweights in house.
Whilst commentating on a Crawford victory in 2019, two-division world champion Timothy Bradley Jr called out PBC fighters.
Speaking on ESPN at the time, Bradley Jr stated: “The only real man over at PBC is Deontay Wilder. Do you know why? Because he is going to be fighting Tyson Fury in February. You guys over there, all you other welterweights, this man (Crawford) is begging to fight you. And he is going to continue to beg to fight you guys. You guys need to put your big-boy pants on, and need to come over and fight with Terence Crawford, because he is the best welterweight in the world – period.”
Keith Thurman, Shawn Porter, and Errol Spence Jr appeared to be kept away from fighting Crawford, all fighting each other.
Eventually Porter and Spence Jr would make fights with Crawford, in 2021 and 2023 respectively, but ‘Bud’ had effectively been put on hold when it came to fighting top-tier opposition. It took Crawford two years to completely unify all four belts at super lightweight; in comparison he had to wait five years to become undisputed at welterweight, despite only fighting one more bout at the higher weight.
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