The fate of potentially groundbreaking Ukraine peace talks hangs in the balance as of Wednesday afternoon, as Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin hold back on confirming their attendance.
Neither president has ruled out showing up to the talks beginning in Istanbul on Thursday. Both Mr Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky say their attendance depends on that of the Russian leader – but the Kremlin has not yet revealed whether he will join talks.
The Ukrainian president offered to meet Putin face-to-face during the talks in Istanbul. Whether or not the presidents attend, delegations from Kyiv and Moscow will meet in Turkey on Thursday for the first direct talks since March 2022.
It comes amid a backdrop of Russia’s repeated rejection of Ukraine’s calls for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, insisting that its maximalist demands, which include the effective ending of Ukraine’s sovereignty, have not been addressed.
The return of Mr Trump to the White House has forced the two sides to the negotiating table, after more than three years of war and around a million people killed or wounded, but their differences appear still to be irreconcilable.
What have Trump, Putin and Zelensky said?
Volodymyr Zelensky, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have found themselves in a diplomatic standoff over the proposed direct talks.
After Putin called for direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow over the weekend, Mr Zelensky said he was ready to meet face-to-face with the Russian president in Istanbul.
The Ukrainian president has been the most vocal about his attendance. He wrote on social media earlier this week that he supports Mr Trump’s calls for direct talks with Putin.
“I have openly said that I am ready for a meeting. I will be in Turkey. I hope that the Russians will not avoid this meeting,” he wrote on X, adding that he hoped Mr Trump would “be there with us – at the meeting in Turkey”.
On Tuesday, Mr Zelensky later told reporters in his presidential office. “Trump needs to believe that Putin actually lies. And we should do our part. Sensibly approach this issue, to show that it’s not us that is slowing down the process.
“If Putin does not arrive and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war,” Mr Zelensky added last night.
He will visit Ankara for talks with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and fly to Istanbul if Vladimir Putin also confirms that he will, the Ukrainian president said.
His chief aides have suggested that the president will not sit down with lower-level Russian officials if Putin does not show up. Kyiv insists that Putin is the only decision maker in Moscow.
Donald Trump, who had first proposed the face-to-face meeting between the leaders who last met in 2019, said he was “thinking about flying over”.
On Wednesday, he told reporters onboard Air Force One en route to Qatar that the Russian president may not show up to the Istanbul talks if he is not present.
“He’d like me to be there, and that’s a possibility. … I don’t know that he would be there if I’m not there. We’re going to find out.”
US special envoy Keith Kellogg said Mr Trump will join the talks if the Russian president does indeed show up. “We’re hoping President Putin shows up as well, and then President Trump will be there. This could be an absolutely incredible meeting,” Mr Kellog said.
“We can get peace, I really believe, pretty fast if all three leaders sit down and talk.”
But the Kremlin has failed to confirm whether Vladimir Putin will attend. Russian lawmaker Leonid Slutsky claimed that the Kremlin would reveal on Wednesday evening who will be part of the Russian delegation to Istanbul.
In a discouraging sign for Putin’s potential attendance in Istanbul, Russia’s Kommersant newspaper has reported that foreign minister Sergei Lavrov will not be joining the peace talks. The report did not verify a source and has not been independently confirmed
Who is confirmed to be attending?
Volodymyr Zelensky appears to have confirmed he will attend, on the condition that Russian president Vladimir Putin also joins the talks.
A senior Russian lawmaker said the makeup of the Russian delegation will be known on Wednesday evening, according to the Kremlin-approved Shot Telegram channel. It added that an all-for-all prisoner exchange could be discussed in tomorrow’s talks.
The meeting comes after Putin claimed he was serious about a peace deal in a surprise speech on the weekend.
The Kremlin on Wednesday confirmed there will be a Russian delegation, but said the lineup will only be confirmed on Putin’s orders.
On the US side, envoy Steve Witkoff said he and secretary of state Marco Rubio would travel to Istanbul on Friday for the talks, with Mr Trump’s attendance still unclear.
Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha is currently in Turkey for an informal meeting with Nato foreign ministers. While Kyiv has not confirmed its delegation, it appears likely Mr Sybiha – who has been closely involved in talks so far – will be part of it.
Ukraine and Russia have held separate talks with the Trump administration in Saudi Arabia this year, though the meetings failed to achieve tangible results.
Ukraine’s talks were led by Mr Yermak, and foreign minister Andriy Sybiha, a former deputy to Mr Yermak who took over as the country’s top diplomat last September.
Russia’s talks were led by the country’s longest-serving government official, foreign minister Sergei Lavrov.
While he is a loyalist to Putin, he is not thought to have any influence on the Russian leader’s decision-making process on Ukraine, nor is he part of Putin’s inner circle.
The Russian leader’s top foreign policy advisor and former ambassador to the US, Yuri Ushakov, also attended the talks.
Mr Ushakov said earlier this week that the talks in Istanbul should consider the results of the “negotiations interrupted in 2022” and the “situation on the ground”.
Mr Erdogan said he had discussed Russian-Ukrainian peace efforts in separate calls with Mr Zelensky, Putin and Mr Trump.
He said “a new window of opportunity has emerged for peace” and claimed that previous talks hosted by Turkey in 2022 came close to success.
What are the chances of a deal to end the war?
Few are optimistic about the talks. While the Trump administration says it is positive that the two countries are sitting down for talks after three years, the reality of their irreconcilable positions remains.
Putin insists that Ukraine must effectively disarm, abandon its bid to join Nato, and cede four regions, including parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson that are not controlled by Russia.
Ukraine and its Western allies insist that this amounts to attempts to remove the country’s sovereignty and leave Kyiv weakened while facing the possibility of a second Russian invasion.
Moscow also wants Ukraine to recognise the Crimean peninsula as Russian, a red line that Kyiv says it will never do. Putin illegally annexed the peninsula, which borders Russia in the Black Sea, in 2014 following pro-European and pro-democracy protests on mainland Ukraine.
Ukraine’s European partners, including the UK, have insisted that Russia must agree to a ceasefire before any truce is negotiated. If Putin refuses, they will slap additional sanctions on Moscow.
Russia has responded by saying it will not respond to threats.
The last face-to-face peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, held in Turkey in March 2022, broke down without any agreement.
Russia also declined to renew a deal brokered by Turkey and the United Nations to allow Ukraine to ship grain through the Black Sea in the summer of 2023, a year after it was agreed.
There have been dozens of ceasefires and peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in the wake of Putin’s initial invasion in 2014 after the ousting of pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych. None of them materialised into a substantial agreement.
