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Pep Guardiola has a habit of describing games as a final. A game billed as a title decider has a finality for one of the participants, he thinks. “If we lose, it’s over,” he said. Although, of course, some people thought the title was all over quite some time ago.
Arsenal’s lead was nine points a week ago. It could be wiped out by Wednesday evening. Manchester City have been the pursuers Arsenal could not shake off; or did not, anyway. Guardiola has caught them in the run-in before and has long spied the opportunity to do so again. “Months ago, because we dropped points in moments where we thought we would not, I saw the calendar and said when Arsenal come at home it can be the chance if we are not 20 points behind,” he said. “Six points is not a short distance but we have the chance to do it.”
The momentum, too. In one respect, anyway. Arsenal are actually in better form in the Premier League, with four wins in their last five games, compared to City’s one victory in three. But in all competitions City have beaten Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea by an aggregate score of 9-0 in their last three matches. Arsenal have a lone win and just three goals in five. The sense is that City are peaking when it matters. Guardiola is relishing a chance that it seemed would elude City. “It’s good to be in that position, to learn for all of us, to learn for the future, for next season. I’m glad to be there,” he said.
Famously, Guardiola and Mikel Arteta are two intense individuals, but the older manager seems more relaxed. In part, that is because his past deeds allow him to be. Winning a seventh Premier League title would not be his finest achievement. “No, the greatest has [been] done,” said a man whose multitude of trophies mean there is plenty of competition for that tag.
There is no doubt, though, that if Arteta can make Arsenal champions for the first time since 2004, it would represent his crowning glory. Guardiola believes that long wait could be advantage to Arsenal. “We cannot fight against these 22 years without winning the Premier League, so they have something that is unique,” said Guardiola.
It also confers more pressure on Arsenal. City have looked more comfortable dealing with it of late. Perhaps Guardiola has succeeded in giving his team the right mindset. Certainly they have grasped opportunities; they were drawing 0-0 at half-time against both Arsenal and Chelsea, and goalless a few minutes before the interval against Liverpool, and were emphatic winners in each.
Perhaps Guardiola’s experience has helped. Or maybe the weather, given that he joked the sun was a reason why they invariably excel in April, whereas Arsenal have looked drained by their season-long exploits. Maybe Guardiola is better than Arteta at lightening the load on his players. “All the managers, if they could buy confidence in a supermarket, they will buy it,” he said.
Guardiola has plenty of purchases on the pitch but, when he outwitted Arteta in the Carabao Cup final, a player who cost nothing proved decisive. Nico O’Reilly, a scorer twice at Wembley, came off at Stamford Bridge with a hamstring issue. The bad news for Arsenal is that he has been passed fit to face them again.
Guardiola adopted quite an attacking approach at Wembley, a rather more defensive one when City drew 1-1 at the Emirates Stadium in September. Arteta has been negative in each of the last two seasons at the Etihad, drawing 0-0 in March 2024 and 2-2 six months later when, reduced to 10 men after Leandro Trossard’s first-half red card, his side almost held out. A third draw would suit them.
If the accusation is that Arsenal have become too predictable, Guardiola’s understanding of his former assistant means he expects a little change. “I know Mikel a little, they are going to adjust something and we have to be prepared,” he added.
City may be in the unfamiliar position of being the neutrals’ choice though, amid the accusations Arsenal have become dull, Guardiola claimed that, unlike many, he enjoys watching them; at the least, he may have enjoyed their 2-1 defeat to Bournemouth.
It made Arsenal look less relentless, less remorseless than recent champions, Guardiola’s City included. His six Premier League titles have come with 100, 98, 86, 93, 89 and 91 points respectively. Now, even if they finish off the season with seven straight wins, the most they can get is 85.
“Of course the points of the season is much, much lower comparing the seasons [competing] with Jurgen [Klopp] at Liverpool,” added Guardiola. “Because maybe both we are not good or maybe the contenders has been better.”
Even if he beats Arsenal, he can see further points escaping his grasp. “Our calendar, especially, it’s terrible,” he said. And yet, at the end of it, is the renewed chance it will bring his seventh Premier League. And perhaps his final one.
