If the 2024-25 season won’t exactly stand out in history, it will finish with one genuinely unique element. There have never been so many clubs going for Champions League qualification on the final day. It has admittedly become a bit more than “the battle for fifth”, as it has occasionally been derided. Instead, five clubs are going for three places, with two of them – Nottingham Forest and Chelsea – directly facing off.
The elements are there for an exciting last day, if not quite an epic one.
The Champions League is obviously hugely important for clubs and the mere chance to win that great trophy is inspiring, but it isn’t quite what pushes players to the very limits of their will.
Improved revenue projections don’t bring the emotional abandon that characterises title races or survival battles. You’re unlikely to see the most vintage vignettes matching those iconic days, where players intensely sprint for a throw-in, while pushing a teammate out of the way to try and get anything going.
These aren’t the extreme ends of the table, so they don’t quite cause anyone to go to extremes.
The Champions League chase has even been a little tempered by the primary theme of this season, which has been the ending of trophy droughts. The euphoric victories of Crystal Palace, Newcastle United and now Tottenham Hotspur were timely reminders of what the sport is supposed to be about, as well as grand ripostes to the “financialisation” that the Champions League itself has most directly caused.
Neither the Carabao Cup nor the FA Cup are worth anything close to top-tier European qualification in terms of money, but the last few weeks have necessarily reminded everyone they are worth so much more in terms of meaning for the fans and the history of a club.
This is what people really remember.
That isn’t to completely downplay the race for the top five, though. It’s not like it’s confected drama, like some of the Champions League’s own league phase. Qualification matters, and even the idea of playing on those big European nights is exhilarating. That’s especially so for Forest, while the excitement of Newcastle and Aston Villa has been whetted in recent years by temporarily touching that sky.
You’ve got to be there. It especially matters to players.
A finish like this coming in the first season of the Champions League’s expansion still represents quite a symmetry. Europe’s elite competition has become bloated, and so has the race to get into it.
After Spurs’ win in the Europa League, six English teams are going to be there. That’s nearly a third of the Premier League. It looks a little absurd, and almost antithetical to what European football is supposed to be about.
Whatever happens, the six will be a mix of the old big six and the nouveau powerful. That is progress, in some ways, even if it involves owners who aren’t exactly all about the game’s best interests.
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The day won’t really involve any of the Premier League’s burgeoning middle class, mind. That particular theme of the season petered out. Palace were left flying the flag in the FA Cup. In the league, only Brighton and Brentford are still involved in some way, but mostly just looking on.
They both need Chelsea to finish in seventh and then win Wednesday’s Europa Conference League final, to open up that place in that very competition. Brighton would subsequently only need a draw at a Spurs in partying mode, in order to keep Brentford at bay even if they win at Wolves.
Chelsea, of course, have far grander aspirations. Most of the day’s focus is going to be on their trip to Forest. That fixture could be billed as a Champions League play-off… except it’s not quite.
There is a fairly reasonable possibility that both clubs could end the day outside those places. All it would take is a draw, and both Newcastle and Villa to win.
The latter scenarios aren’t quite certainties, but they are likely. St James’ Park has had that taste of Champions League football again, and it is going to be rocking. Even if Everton are awkward opposition for a match from which you need something, David Moyes’ side might have their own emotional hangover after the last game at Goodison Park. “Emotional hangover”, meanwhile, doesn’t even begin to describe what state Manchester United might be in for Villa’s visit. There is a chance Ruben Amorim’s side rally, but it’s hard not to feel Villa just steamroll them for one final humiliation.
Where the day might get really interesting is if those two matches, in particular, become tense. City’s midweek win over Bournemouth means they are probably too insulated, unless they lose at Fulham and all of Newcastle, Chelsea and Villa win. Like facing Everton, a visit to Fulham isn’t an ideal fixture, but City probably just have enough.
Either way, both Chelsea and Forest have to play to win. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have no chance otherwise. Chelsea can’t take the risk. That might bring something close to the kind of abandon that can really make a final day great.
Much of that is dictated by desire, by desperation. You’re never quite going to want a Champions League place as much as you do a title or survival. It’s intrinsic.
Finance still frames too much. Chelsea and Villa badly need this for PSR reasons. Newcastle need it to try and reach the next stage. City need it for their sense of self, especially as Liverpool’s own long party culminates with the Premier League trophy lift. City also need to save their season. Forest have already considerably overachieved, but won’t be able to help feeling a little underwhelmed if they miss out, given where they were.
This final day is certainly much better than it looked like it might have been. It’s one of a kind in its own way, even if it’s five trying to go into three.
