Scotland boss Steve Clarke admitted he believes his side are ‘going home’ from the World Cup after defeat to Brazil left them clinging on to their hopes of reaching the knock-out stages.
The Tartan Army will be forced to watch on nervously over the coming days to see whether Scotland can finish as one of the eight best third-placed teams.
The heavy defeat to Brazil proved costly with Scotland’s goal difference seeing them drop down the rankings, leaving them ranked sixth when the final whistle blew.
Scotland’s situation worsened just hours later after South Africa earned a 1-0 win over South Korea to automatically qualify from their group. South Korea became a third-placed team following the defeat, but are assured of finishing above Scotland due to their better goal difference.
With Scotland slipping to seventh as a result, the Tartan Army will be needing favours from elsewhere if their World Cup adventure is to go on.
Daily Mail Sport takes a closer look at what Scotland need to happen to keep their World Cup dreams alive.
Scotland boss Steve Clarke believes his side are ‘going home’ after their 3-0 defeat by Brazil
Scotland will need favours from several teams if they are to reach the World Cup last-32
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Why are third placed teams going through?
The expansion of the World Cup from 32 to 48 teams required FIFA to rethink the format of the group stages.
FIFA’s initial plan was to have 16 groups consisting of three teams, with the winners and runners-up advancing to the new last- 32 stage of the competition, while the bottom ranked side would head home.
The governing body revised their plans in 2023, opting to revert to four-team groups citing ‘sporting integrity, player welfare, team travel, commercial and sporting attractiveness, as well as team and fan experience’.
A key consideration was that the revised format would reduce the risk of collusion between teams, preventing a scenario when two teams could play for a particular result in their final match to ensure both advanced at the expense of a side that had already played their two games.
The move back to four-team groups saw FIFA confirm that the top two in each of the 12 groups would advance to the last 32, with the top eight third placed teams also progressing.
A similar format has been in place at the European Championships since 2016, where four of the six best third-placed teams reach the knock-out stages.
| Team | Played | Won | Drawn | Lost | For | Against | Goal difference | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Bosnia-Herzegovina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 4 |
| 2. Sweden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 3. Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 4. South Korea | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 5. Algeria | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 6. Paraguay | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 7. Scotland | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 8. Cape Verde | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 9. Belgium | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 10. Congo DR | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 11. Ecuador | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 1 |
| 12. Senegal | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 0 |
Who do Scotland need to cheer for?
Scotland fans must first cheer on Germany and the Ivory Coast in Group E in their matches against Ecuador and Curacao today. If Ecuador and Curacao fail to win, Scotland are assured of finishing ahead of Group E’s eventual third placed team in the rankings.
Group F offers only small hope for Scotland, who would need Sweden to lose to Japan by four or more goals to move above them.
Scotland fans will then need to tune in for Australia’s match against Paraguay, a meeting of the second and third-placed teams in Group D. The two teams currently have three points – the same as Scotland – but both have a better goal difference.
A draw is useless for Scotland, with the Tartan Army needing to cheer on a decisive win for either Australia or Paraguay. Australia are the best bet as a victory by two or more goals would ensure Scotland have the goal difference edge on Paraguay. By contrast, Paraguay would need to win by four or more goals for Scotland to overtake Australia.
Senegal’s meeting with Iraq in Group I will come with concern. Senegal, who are yet to pick up a point, only need to beat Iraq to move above Scotland due to their goal difference currently being level. Iraq could advance provided they were to beat Senegal by three goals.
Germany are one of the teams Scotland fans will need to be cheering on over the coming days
Scotland fans will be fearing a Senegal victory in their match against Iraq on Friday
The match that matters for Scotland in Group G is Egypt’s clash with Iran. An Egypt victory ensures whichever side finishes third in the group will have fewer than three points.
It is the same situation in Group H, where a Spain victory over Uruguay prevents the third placed team from leapfrogging Scotland.
A Ghana win by three goals over Croatia would be required in England’s group.
Scotland will have concerns over DR Congo’s match against Uzbekistan in Group K. A DR Congo victory guarantees the third-place team finishes above Clarke’s side. Uzbekistan, however, would need to win by four goals to move above Scotland.
If Scotland’s hopes are still alive by the final group, all eyes will be fixed on Austria’s match with Algeria. A draw between the teams would ensure Algeria – who are currently third – would better Scotland’s points tally.
An Austria win by two goals or an Algeria win by four would be the results the Tartan Army would be praying for.
Who could Scotland face if they progress?
If Scotland were to advance as one of the eight best third placed teams, they would face either the winners of Group A, E and I.
Mexico have already been confirmed as Group A winners with their last-32 tie already confirmed as being in front of home fans at the Azteca Stadium on June 30.
It would throw up the prospect of Scotland potentially meeting England in the last 16, provided England win their group to lock themselves into that part of the draw.
Scotland’s other last-32 opponents look daunting with Germany confirmed as Group E winners, while France are currently top of Group I.
Those possible ties would take place in either Boston or New Jersey.
What about England fans?
For England supporters hoping to see Scotland sent home early, the equation is simple – cheer for the opposite teams to the ones the Scots are backing in the match-ups above!
England fans should also keep an eye on third placed teams as the Three Lions could face one in the last-32…
Who England could face?
England are currently top of Group L and would be confirmed as winners if they beat Panama in their final match.
This would mean Thomas Tuchel’s side would play their last-32 match in Atlanta against one of the best third placed teams from either groups E, H, I, J, K.
As it stands England would be projected to face World Cup debutants Cape Verde, who are third in Group H. The winners of Mexico and Scotland would be the projected last-16 opponent.
Should England finish second in the group they would meet the runner-up from Group K in the last-32, which is currently Portugal.
Thomas Tuchel’s side would be in line to play a third place team if they win Group L
Portugal could yet leapfrog Colombia if they beat the South Americans in their final group match, but a defeat could allow DR Congo the chance to secure third spot.
It would put the Three Lions on a path to face Spain in the last-16 in what would be a repeat of the Euro 2024 final.
A shock defeat to Panama coupled with a narrow Croatia win over Ghana could see England progress as a best third place team.
In that scenario they would be guaranteed to face the winner of Group K, which would be either Colombia or Portugal. A last-16 match could follow against Switzerland.
