The UK will recognise a Palestinian state in September unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire and a two-state solution in Gaza, Sir Keir Starmer has vowed.
The prime minister said Benjamin Netanyahu’s government must end its starvation tactics and allow the supply of aid into the embattled enclave after a UN-backed food security body said the “worst-case scenario of famine” was playing out in the territory.
The announcement on Tuesday came after an emergency virtual cabinet meeting where Sir Keir laid out his plan for peace in the Middle East, agreed over the weekend with French President Emmanuel Macron and German chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Sir Keir has come under mounting pressure from his own party to recognise a Palestinian state, which has only grown since President Emmanuel Macron announced France’s intention to do so by September.
It comes as British foreign secretary David Lammy is attending a United Nations conference in New York on Tuesday to urge support for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians.
Here, The Independent asks experts about what the UK recognising Palestinian statehood would mean in practice.
What would UK recognition of Palestine as a state mean?
Dr Julie Norman, an associate professor at UCL specialising in Middle Eastern politics, said it looks likely that the UK will recognise Palestine as a state, which would mean voting for this at the United Nations (UN) – but it would be unlikely the UN would recognise Palestinian statehood due to the probability of the United States blocking the move.
However, she said countries such as the UK and France voting for recognition at the UN would be a “significant” move.
And she said the UK officially recognising Palestinian statehood would still be of “value”, even if the reality is that not much would change on the ground, with Israel still “fully rejecting” the prospect of recognition.
Speaking of British recognition, Dr Norman said: “It would be a strong moral commitment and stance to Palestine at a moment when it’s never been more fraught in Gaza and the West Bank.
“In the short term, it’s a diplomatic stance, and it makes room for policy changes.
“And, if and when parties come back to discuss the long-term conflict, it would put Palestine in a better position. So it wouldn’t change things immediately, but I would say it still has value.”
She added that the move might initially see more change in London than in Ramallah, a city in the central West Bank, which serves as the administrative capital of Palestine – with, for example, the opening of an embassy in the UK capital. This would not mean recognition of Hamas.
What is the two-state solution?
The idea of dividing the Holy Land goes back decades.
When the British mandate over Palestine ended, the UN partition plan in 1947 envisioned dividing the territory into Jewish and Arab states. Upon Israel’s declaration of independence the following year, war erupted with its Arab neighbours and the plan was never implemented. Over half of the Palestinian population fled or were forced to flee. Under a 1949 armistice, Jordan held control over the West Bank and east Jerusalem and Egypt over Gaza.
Israel captured the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza in the 1967 Mideast war. The Palestinians seek these lands for a future independent state, and the idea of a two-state solution based on Israel’s pre-1967 boundaries has been the basis of peace talks dating back to the 1990s.
The two-state solution has wide international support, but there is disagreement about how it would be implemented.
Israel’s creation and expansion of settlements in the Occupied West Bank, which are illegal under international law, are seen as a major obstacle to this.
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What would recognition of Palestine as a state mean for refugees?
Sir Vincent Fean, a former British Consul General to Jerusalem and now a trustee of the charity Britain Palestine Project, explained that recognition of Palestine as a state would mean that if Palestinian passports were issued, they would subsequently be recognised by the UK as passports of a state.
However, Sir Vincent said Palestinian statehood would not affect the UK’s refugee system.
“Does it impact the tally of refugees coming to the UK? No,” he said. This is because he expects the visa regime the UK currently has with Palestine – where travel is only allowed between the two after a successful visa application – would continue.
He added that Palestinian statehood “wouldn’t particularly change the right of return for Palestinians to their homeland”. He said this was a “long-standing right”, although it would require negotiation with Israel.
What does UK recognition of Palestinian statehood mean for how the two would communicate?
Sir Vincent said this was a “very important point” to clarify, as he highlighted the distinction between recognising the entity of Palestine and recognising factions of government.
He said: “It’s important to say the British government doesn’t recognise governments, it recognises states.
“So it isn’t actually recognising President [Mahmoud] Abbas as head of the PLO [Palestine Liberation Organisation] and head of the Palestinian Authority.
“In practice, he would be the interlocutor in Ramallah, because there isn’t an alternative.”
He stressed, however, that Britain has already proscribed Hamas as a terrorist group and that this would not change.
Dr Norman added that the Palestinian Authority is currently the main governing entity for Palestinians in the West Bank, which the UK has recognised and had lines of communication with for a long time. If Britain were to recognise Palestinian statehood, this would not change and would continue.
Sir Vincent also said that the prospect of Hamas running Palestine next is “practically zero” because the militants’ chances of winning an election are “remote”.
He said the plan for the future governance of Gaza involving the Palestinian Authority will be a focus of the UN meeting being held this week.
What countries have recognised Palestinian statehood?
France has become the latest country to announce it will recognise Palestinian statehood, drawing angry rebukes from Israel and the United States and opening the door for other major nations to perhaps follow suit.
Mr Macron last week published a letter sent to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas confirming France’s intention to press ahead with recognition and work to convince other partners to do the same. He said he would make a formal announcement at the United Nations General Assembly next month.
France is now the first major Western country to shift its diplomatic stance on a Palestinian state, after Spain, Ireland, and Norway officially recognised it last year.
The three countries made the declaration and agreed its borders would be demarcated as they were before the 1967 Middle East war, when Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem.
However, they also recognised that those borders may change if a final settlement is reached over the territory, and that their decisions did not diminish their belief in Israel’s fundamental right to exist in peace and security.
About 144 of the 193 UN member states recognise Palestine as a state, including most of the global south as well as Russia, China and India. But only a handful of the 27 European Union members do so, mostly former Communist countries as well as Sweden and Cyprus.
The UN General Assembly approved the de facto recognition of the sovereign state of Palestine in November 2012 by upgrading its observer status at the world body to “non-member state” from “entity”.
What implications would UK recognition of Palestinian statehood have internationally?
Dr Norman said: “This is where it can be important”.
Two major global powers, such as the UK and France, making the move would be “significant” and would pave the way for conversations on the issue happening elsewhere, such as in Canada, she said.
“It starts isolating the US as the main major power backing Israel to the exclusion of Palestine,” she said. “It makes them the exception and shows the rest of the world somewhat united in Palestinian self-determination, which has been the UK’s policy for a while now. If we’re serious about that, then we need to be serious about that.
“We don’t have as much military weight as the US, but we do still have diplomatic weight, and we should use what we can.
“It would show Europe is committed to a two-state solution, and wouldn’t let that disappear or sit in the back seat.”
