After the apparent 11th-hour deal between the US and Iran, Donald Trump cannot pretend that Middle East geopolitics will resume much as before, just with a militarily neutered foe.
Neither can airlines and passengers expect to revert to the way aviation was up to 27 February 2026.
This is my assessment of how the events of the past 40 days will affect your air travel in the next 40 days – and beyond. It assumes some sort of lasting peace deal is agreed soon.
Fuel shortages are over, then?
No. Everyone hopes that the ceasefire will hold and tankers carrying crude oil and refined aviation fuel can once again flow freely through the Gulf of Hormuz. But in terms of replenishing aircraft tanks, things are likely to get worse before they get better.
A significant shortage of jet fuel is building up across Europe and Asia. Some ships in the Gulf are fully loaded and ready to leave, but reaching western Europe is a matter of weeks rather than days.
Tankers that are waiting empty on the ocean side of the Strait must enter and then fill up from whoever is able to supply them – in a hyper-competitive environment where money talks louder than long-term commercial arrangements.
Enduring high fuel prices will provide a powerful incentive to get back on track. By the time the summer super-peak begins in July, I predict talk of shortages will have evaporated.
But with damage to infrastructure on both shores of the Gulf, supplies will not rebound at the same scale.
Will the short-term oil price shock subside?
Yes, but the indications are that the cost of a barrel of crude oil or a tonne of aviation fuel will settle at a higher level than prevailed up to 27 February. Supply has been reduced by missile and drone attacks on docks and refineries.
Demand will surge as people who were unwilling to commit to trips start booking summer holidays.
Those no-longer-hesitant travellers will discover that fares are significantly higher on many routes, reflecting the increased cost of fuel and still-constrained aviation capacity.
What about those Gulf airspace closures?
It will take more than a temporary ceasefire to restore confidence. Aviation authorities, airlines and airports will need to be convinced that missiles and drones have stopped hurtling around the Middle East before hubs reopen without restrictions. The same applies to flight plans: long and winding diversions may not revert to direct routings over Iraq and Iran for many weeks.
The sooner the skies are clear the better; one reason for the airlines’ thirst for fuel is that many flights are taking significantly longer than before.
The Foreign Office will also need to lift its current no-go warning against changing planes at the Gulf hubs for the market to move towards a new equilibrium.
When will the ‘ME3’ be back to full strength?
The trio of major Middle East carriers – Emirates, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways – have been struggling to recover their operations. The biggest of them, Emirates, is furthest advanced. The UK operation has a way to go before the normal six Airbus A380 SuperJumbo jets each day, each way between London Heathrow and Dubai International are back.
Etihad and Qatar Airways are currently well behind. They don’t have the same deep and complex network as Emirates, so they may rebuild more swiftly.
Among the other airlines based in the region, Air Arabia (based in Sharjah) and FlyDubai are likely to recover more swiftly than Gulf Air of Bahrain and Kuwait Airways.
The Middle East carriers will find for a time that many of their erstwhile competitors are absent. European and Asian carriers were quick to cut routes to the region, but will be slow to come back – not least because they have redeployed planes and pilots on more profitable routes …
What happens to fares between Europe and Asia?
They will come down as the Middle East carriers come back. At present those European and Asian airlines are taking full advantage of the disarray by adding extra flights to cash in on high fares.
Assuming the Gulf airlines are back on an even keel by early autumn, you can expect a mighty fares war to help them recover from the Iran War and regain market share.
If you plan a winter excursion to Asia, Africa, and Australasia, I recommend holding off booking until September or October.
One exception: for peak Christmas outbound departures and New Year inbound arrivals, start looking now and grab any fare that looks favourable.
I used to take winter holidays in Dubai …
So did millions of others. The UAE and Qatar are desperate to fill their hotels, so expect some outstanding deals – particularly on all-inclusive packages.
The airlines and the accommodation providers will not want to be too public about how low they are pricing fares and beds. So an opaque arrangement that does not reveal how much each is charging will suit both parties.
Read more: UK flight cancellations begin as fuel costs soar and demand drops
