As Russia’s military action in Ukraine encroaches on European airspace, Poland’s foreign minister has raised the prospect of Nato support in patrolling the skies.
On 10 September, Russian drones over Polish airspace prompted Radoslaw Sikorski to invoke Article 4 of Nato’s North Atlantic Treaty, calling for an urgent meeting of member states to discuss what he called Vladimir Putin’s “large-scale provocation”.
Tensions were heightened a few days later when Romania reported similar drone incursions into its airspace, forcing the military to scramble its own fighter jets in response.
Unease spread among European countries as the incursions occurred at the same time as high-profile military drills were played out between Belarus and Russia.
Speaking to a German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine, Sikorski talked about extending missions into Ukraine: “We as Nato and the EU could be capable of doing this, but it is not a decision that Poland can make alone; it can only be made with its allies.
“Protection for our population – for example, from falling debris – would naturally be greater if we could combat drones and other flying objects beyond our national territory.
“If Ukraine were to ask us to shoot them down over its territory, that would be advantageous for us. If you ask me personally, we should consider it.”
Zelensky backed Sikorski’s calls as he said: “Now is the time to implement the joint protection of our European skies with a multilayered air defense system. All the technologies for this are available. We need investments and desire, we need strong actions and decisions from all our partners.”
Nato’s former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander and former British Army general Sir Richard Shirreff told The Independent that Nato had “failed” in its duty to protect member states.
“Last week Russia attacked a Nato country,” said Sir Richard, who is now chair of the Healix Risk and Security Advisory Board. “The whole purpose of Nato is to defend the airspace, land borders and the sea lines of communication. It ultimately does that through effective deterrence. Last week, that failed.”
He believes that the incursion was a “deliberate attack to probe Nato defenses”, adding that if Russia “smells weakness” it will persist in its aggression: “Nato has to respond with real strength.”
He said imposing a no-fly zone is “absolutely” the correct route to take.
In response to concerns of a wider war, he said: “This is an act of war against Russia, but it is in response to an act of war by Russia in a Nato member state. So it is entirely justifiable. In a very real sense, we are already at war with Russia.”
But what is a no fly zone and what does that mean in reality?
What is a no-fly zone?
A no-fly zone, also known as a no-flight zone (NFZ), is a militarised airspace prohibited to certain aircraft. The restriction must be imposed with force and can consist of pre-emptive strikes, surveillance and attacks against aircraft intending to enter the area.
“They are typically invoked when deploying friendly ground forces would be unrealistic, and involve enforcement with ground, air, and space-based surveillance, as well as constant combat air patrols of friendly combat aircraft,” Gareth Jennings, a military expert at Janes, told The Independent.
It designates an area of space as “off-limits to military aircraft” with the aim of “restricting a hostile group’s or government’s ability to conduct its operations that are usually harming a civilian population.”
No-fly zones were first implemented in the 1990s with Operation Northern Watch and Operation Southern Watch over northern and southern Iraq following the end of the Gulf War in 1991.
They have been enforced in several conflicts since, including Operation Deny Flight in Bosnia and Herzegovina between 1993 and 1995 and in Libya in 2011, 2018 and 2019.
A no-fly zone differs from air policing as “all hostile military aircraft are forbidden to operate in a proscribed area (typically over an active war zone) at the risk of being shot down by friendly military aircraft,” said Jennings.
“Air policing is used in peacetime and is limited to friendly and/or international air space that is usually adjacent or relatively close to a hostile country.
“It would see friendly combat aircraft intercept and shadow hostile aircraft in international airspace, but would not see them attempt to shoot them down.”
The risk of direct conflict
However, the decision to impose a no-fly zone over a Nato country in the current Ukraine crisis would be a ratcheting up of tensions as it risks direct conflict between Nato states and Russia.
The decision to militarise an airspace means Nato must be ready to engage in combat if the airspace is violated. Some experts have warned this could lead to significant unrest and outright war.
“If Nato were to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, it would then have to enforce it,” said Jennings.
“That would require Nato combat aircraft flying over Ukraine and potentially engaging directly with Russian aircraft, which would have the effect of Nato becoming a co-combatant in the war.”
Previous no-fly zones have been easier to enforce due to states being “much weaker militarily than Nato” to effectively oppose them.
“That would not be true for Russia, and there would be no guarantee that Nato could enforce such a no-fly zone even if it wanted to,” he said.
Many strikes against Ukraine have been launched from within Russia, rendering a no-fly zone “pointless” in some respects.
“There may be a halfway house between a no-fly zone and doing nothing at all, that could see Nato (or at least the Nato countries bordering the conflict zone) shoot down drones that are approaching their airspace but still over Ukraine, but again that carries risks in terms of enforcement and escalation,” Jennings continued.
“The closure of the skies over Ukraine is actually the invasion of Nato troops on its territory,” Russian military expert Yuri Knutov told The Paragraph.
“The direct participation of the troops of these countries, which plan such operations, in the conflict means declaring war on us. This is a casus belli and the declaration of World War III, which will eventually escalate into a war involving tactical nuclear weapons.
“Such proposals will be put forward only by people who do not realise that Russia is a nuclear power and still tolerates numerous violations of the red lines that our leadership has repeatedly stated.”
Ukraine’s last request was rejected in 2022
Zelensky called for the imposition of a no-fly zone over its airspace in the days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. He said the country “simply cannot manage” without it.
The UK, US and Nato opposed Ukraine’s request, leading to the Ukrainian president accusing Nato leadership of giving “a green light for further bombing of Ukrainian cities and villages.”
However, Ben Wallace, the UK’s then-Defence Secretary said that fighting Russian aircraft in a no-fly zone would trigger a “war across Europe”. There have also been concerns around the effectiveness of such an action as it cannot counter attacks by land or sea.
Yet Tobias Ellwood, chair of the Defence Select Committee, said “Putin will not stop until he is stopped”, arguing that inaction could pose further risks.
What has been done in the aftermath of Russia’s drone incursions?
A new Nato initiative, Operation Eastern Sentry, was launched to protect and shield allies in the eastern flank of Europe. It allows Nato forces to counter aerial threats from Russia, including drones.
The UK has committed Royal Air Force Typhoons to join allied forces including Denmark, France and German, which the British government said will “bolster Nato’s defence and deterrence along its eastern flank”.
A government statement said: “The Typhoons will operate out of RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire and are expected to start flying missions over Poland in the coming days. They will be supported by RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft from RAF Brize Norton.”
However, Sir Richard said the plan appeared to be three extra Nato planes to support Polish military.
“The UK is fully committed to playing our part in Nato’s Eastern Sentry following the reckless and dangerous airspace violations by Russia,” the Ministry of Defence said about the initiative.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer added: “These aircraft are not just a show of strength, they are vital in deterring aggression, securing NATO airspace, and protecting our national security and that of our allies.”
“The multi-domain activity, which will commence in the coming days and continue for an undisclosed amount of time, is in response to ongoing airspace violations, including the numerous Russian drones that violated Poland’s airspace on September 10,” a statement by Nato read.
“Operation Eastern Sentry is the beefing up of Nato’s eastern flank as a direct result of the recent Russian drone incursions into Poland and Romania,” said Jennings.
