America’s foreign aid freeze could cause more than two million additional deaths from tuberculosis across the next five years, scientists have warned.
The aid cuts by Donald Trump’s administration have already significantly impacted global health programmes and could result in an extra 2.2 million deaths from TB over the next half-decade, according to the research published in the journal PLOS Global Public Health.
The US contributed at least 55 per cent of the external funding for global TB programmes at the end of 2024.
However, the Trump administration terminated over 80 per cent of aid contracts run by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), which until Trump re-entered the White House in January, had been a major humanitarian provider across the world.
USAID, according to Trump, “strayed from its original mission,” resulting in “too few gains and too high costs”, and his administration’s funding cuts led to the termination of more 5,800 global grants – a move that groups around the world have decried as having a devastating impact.
In the new study, researchers modelled the impact of the foreign aid funding cuts from the US on 26 countries with high TB cases.
They found that in the worst-case scenario of prolonged reduction in services, there could be an additional 10.67 million TB cases and 2.2 million deaths between 2025 and 2030.
This scenario assumes that funding cuts translate proportionately into loss of TB treatments and outcomes across the 26 countries studied.
Even in a best-case scenario where services recover within the next three months, there could still be 0.63 million extra TB cases and some 100,000 deaths.
A “moderate impact” scenario will see around 1.66 million extra TB cases and 270,000 deaths.
The findings underscore the key role played by US funding in combating TB infections globally.
“The withdrawal of US government support threatens the development of such critical new tools, further delaying progress and – without adequate mitigation – making End TB targets unattainable,” researchers said. “Pre-existing funding gaps have now widened, worsening resource shortages needed to combat TB.”
Significant funding cuts threaten the global goal of eradicating TB by 2030, part of the World Health Organisation’s End TB Strategy.
“Recent withdrawal of US financial support threatens essential TB service delivery, including diagnostics, treatment, TB-HIV co-infection interventions and research initiatives critical to eradicating TB,” the new study noted.
“While some nations may adapt, short-term disruptions will severely impact vulnerable populations.”
The overall impact of the aid cuts remains unclear as the latest model does not separately analyse the impact on curbing drug-resistant TB cases.
The study emphasises the need for alternative funding via domestic resources, other international donors or multilateral agencies to curb TB cases worldwide.
“Urgent alternative funding is needed to sustain critical TB prevention and treatment efforts,” it says.
This article was produced as part of The Independent’s Rethinking Global Aid project
