- Respiratory infections with pandemic potential continue to represent the greatest risk to UK health security
- Emerging infections pose persistent and, in some cases, increasing threat, while antimicrobial resistance is a key driver in determining how a number of health risks will impact UK health security over the next 5 years
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has published its first Health Security Risk Assessment (HSRA), a publication which characterises the most significant health security risks facing the UK over the next 5 years.
The report, complements the Cabinet Office’s existing National Risk Register by offering a more detailed view of health-related threats and provides a systematic framework to understand the impact of infectious diseases, environmental hazards and other acute health emergencies.
Until now, there has been no overarching assessment comparing and contrasting the range of threats that the agency is responsible for, and the HSRA fills this gap by using a structured approach to identify and assess a suite of acute health risks.
Professor Steven Riley, Chief Data Officer at the UK Health Security Agency said
As we continue to experience risks from a wide range of complex health security threats which disproportionately impact more vulnerable groups in our society, it is vital we continue to enhance our preparedness measures and resilience planning.
This report reflects the breadth of UKHSA’s remit in responding to these threats but is also designed to support our partners in government, health services and other public and private services, who have collaborated extensively on this report to ensure its relevance and rigour.
While high potential impact and assessed likelihood means that respiratory infections with pandemic potential remain our greatest threat, the health hazards in this edition of this report span 7 themes bloodborne and sexually transmitted, contact, gastrointestinal, respiratory, vector-borne, environmental and combined events.
For each of the included risks, a ‘reasonable worst-case scenario’ is created. These scenarios are not a prediction of what is most likely to happen, instead they represent the worst plausible manifestation of that particular risk. Examples have been selected to illustrate the broad ways in which risks may manifest across different pathways.
A number of the scenarios detailed in this report, including a novel coronavirus pandemic, declining childhood immunisation coverage and extreme heat, have already been witnessed in recent years while other scenarios focus on the potential for known health threats to have a greater impact in future.
Under one such scenario, a new strain of influenza arrives in the UK and in multiple waves over the course of two years leads two symptomatic infections in over half of the UK population, 4% of whom require hospital care. This outbreak, much like the COVID-19 pandemic, would have substantial wider healthcare impacts as healthcare workers become ill and/or are diverted to the response.
In another scenario, a series of warmer-than-expected summers in continental Europe results in the Aedes albopictus mosquito becoming established in London and south coast ports, leading to the first locally acquired cases of Dengue in the UK, some requiring hospital care.
All of the scenarios presented are assessed for likelihood and potential impact on healthcare, the economy and wider society, while a detailed response and mitigation plan is provided for each.
