There has been a final sting to “Awful April” after official figures showed a property market that was heading for strife immediately after the Iran war began.
Monthly property statistics from HMRC show there were 104,070 residential property deals struck in March, a fall of 41 per cent since last year.
That backs up what estate agents and homebuilders have reported. London estate agents Foxtons said last week that its commission from house sales was down a third so far this year. It reported a drop in interest from buyers even after sellers cut prices.
The March figures were in fact a slight improvement on February, but still suggest a sluggish market.
“Awful April” refers to a jump in household bills and increases in water bills, council tax and other bills, combined with inflation, to put a squeeze on already pushed households.
Andrew Lloyd, managing director at property data firm Search Acumen, said: “Today’s property figures add a final sting to what many in the industry have been calling ‘Awful April’. By historic standards, this slowdown in deals is significant at a particularly delicate moment for the market. Today’s transaction data matters because it answers a simple question: are we pausing or stalling?”
The Bank of England held interest rates on Thursday and gave strong hints that the next move could be up. That would dash hopes of cheaper mortgage deals, which will make life harder for buyers.
Simon Gerrard, chair of Martyn Gerrard Estate Agents, said: “How the market goes in summer is entirely down to confidence. Right now, the war in Iran and the resulting fears about interest rates has wrecked nerves. If the war ends, things will quickly improve but until then transactions will remain on the floor.”
Mr Lloyd added: “So far, the signs point to hesitation. The housing market is absorbing an extraordinary number of shocks at once. Alongside ongoing geopolitical uncertainty weighing on confidence, buyers and sellers are adjusting to a dense mix of tax and policy headwinds: frozen inheritance tax thresholds, the end of the non‑dom regime, higher borrowing costs, rising transaction expenses and a stagnant stamp duty framework that keeps moving costs elevated.”
Normally, the property market enjoys a bounce in spring, which is why the March figures being only marginally ahead of February is surprising to the experts.
Mr Lloyd did offer some hope – that lenders would “blink first” and cut rates.
“In housing, everyone is watching everyone else in a ‘who will blink first’ market. Sellers won’t move without an offer; buyers won’t commit without cheaper mortgages.
“Downsizers armed with cash are ready, but younger families are stuck behind stubbornly high rates and expiring low-cost fixes. You can’t help but feel like it’s a kettle that’s been left on a low boil for too long.
“As summer approaches, I think lenders are likely to blink first and ease rates to get the market moving again.”
