Sir Keir Starmer has been warned that announcing U-turns on controversial policies may not be enough to turn around his dwindling approval ratings or win back lost voters.
Polling experts say last week’s climbdown on winter fuel payment cuts — as well as a potential reversal on the Tories’ two-child benefit cap — run the risk of making him look “insecure” and could trigger yet more talk of a leadership challenge.
The warning comes as the prime minister scrambles to win over voters who have turned their back on Labour since the party’s historic general election victory ten months ago. The PM is also facing a rebellion from his own MPs over controversial welfare cuts and a growing unease over the direction of the party.
Polling guru Sir John Curtice warned that any policy reversals — even if deemed popular by MPs and the public — may not be enough to assuage concerns over his leadership, adding that “doubts have crept in” for Labour MPs over whether Sir Keir is the right person to lead the party to victory in 2029.
Referring to the recent U-turn on winter fuel payment cuts, he told The Independent: “These things stick in the memory — so you can change the policy now and you can probably reduce the damage, but it’s difficult to erase some people’s memory.”
Fellow pollster Lord Hayward, a Tory peer, also warned that too many U-turns could paint a picture of insecurity for the prime minister.
“The big risk is that any government that reverses a headline policy — which clearly they have done on winter fuel allowance — immediately does two things.
“One, it leaves itself open for more bids for the reversals of policy, and secondly, it is a display of insecurity which automatically gives rise to talk about the replacement of a leader.”
He added of Sir Keir: “In relation to putting him back in a strong position, he has to be consistent. You can afford to reverse the odd policy, but you can’t afford to reverse lots of them. So he has to be clear about where he goes from here.”
On Wednesday, the prime minister announced plans to row back on last year’s controversial decision to means test the winter fuel payment, telling the Commons he would look at increasing the thresholds at which people start to receive the benefit.
Sir Keir is also now reportedly considering scrapping the two-child benefit cap — a policy that restricts parents from claiming certain benefits for more than two of their children — because it is “the right thing to do”.
Critics of the policy say removing the cap would be the most effective way of reducing child poverty across the UK amid warnings that as many as 100 children are pulled into poverty every day by the limit.
Labour backbenchers have also been urging ministers to axe the cap over recent months as disquiet grows against Sir Keir’s wider welfare reforms, with more than 150 MPs now preparing to vote against them.
However, Sir John pointed out that the decision is a complex one for Sir Keir because the two-child benefit cap is relatively popular among voters, adding that reversing it is “not what you would choose to do if you were really focused on why you were behind in the opinion polls.”
It would also be seen as a significant backtrack for the prime minister, after he last year stripped seven MPs of the Labour whip for rebelling against the government over an SNP-led motion to scrap the cap.
The reported change in approach was revealed as it emerged that Nigel Farage is preparing to outflank Sir Keir on benefits by committing to scrapping the cap and fully reinstating the winter fuel payment – piling pressure on the prime minister to do the same.
The PM has been attempting to tackle the threat posed by Reform UK after they won a massive 677 council seats at the local elections and overturned the Labour-held Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary seat. Sir Keir’s party lost two-thirds of the council seats they won in 2021 and are continuing to lag behind Reform in the polls.
Asked on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg about whether the cap would be abolished, Labour deputy leader Angela Rayner refused to be drawn on the reports. “I’m not going to speculate on what our government is going to do,” she said.
Meanwhile, the deputy prime minister was forced to deny having ambitions to become the leader of the Labour Party, amid growing rumours that she is seeking to challenge Sir Keir.
Quizzed about a potential leadership challenge, Ms Rayner categorically ruled out wanting to hold the position at any point in the future, saying she would “never” consider putting herself forward as prime minister.
The Independent revealed that a large number of MPs from the so-called “soft left” of the party are organising to try to force a change of direction, with allies of Ms Rayner urging her to organise a leadership contest.
But Ms Rayner told Sky News: “I don’t want to be leader of the Labour Party.”
Sir John warned that the questions over Sir Keir’s leadership reflects the “nervousness that has now got into the Labour party about Starmer and the character of his government, and certainly the party’s standing in the polls”.
“The authority of prime ministers rest very heavily on their being thought to be a winner for their party,” he said. “The problem that Starmer now has is that doubts have crept in to [Labour MPs’] minds as to whether or not…he is going to be a winner in 2029.”
Lord Hayward said the questions over a possible leadership challenge from Ms Rayner are a “real reflection of the difficulties that Labour are in at this point.”
It comes after a leaked memo, thought to be part of a briefing campaign against the deputy prime minister from rivals within the government, revealed that Ms Rayner backed plans to force middle-class families to lose their child benefit in a bid to avoid welfare cuts for the disabled and a squeeze on public spending.
Meanwhile, Ms Rayner piled further pressure on the prime minister over his plan to water down the winter fuel cut, saying details could be revealed within weeks. Downing Street last week insisted that the first opportunity to unveil the changes would be at October’s budget, raising questions over whether that would allow enough time to have the changes in force for next winter.
Indicating a shift in position, Ms Rayner said on Sunday: “Well, I think that the we’ve got the upcoming Spending Review, and I’m sure that the chancellor will set it out when we’ve got the opportunity. At the first opportunity, she will set out what we’ll be able to do.”
