England fans have been dreading this fixture ever since it was a mere possibility. Mexico at the Estadio Azteca. Football’s most unforgiving away day.
We have known for some months that we could be on a collision course. Now we are definitely facing the co-hosts in the last 16, many have simply made peace with the idea that this is where our World Cup ends. Oh well. We tried. Don’t bother paying the £27,000 ticket cost.
‘Beating Mexico at the Azteca? No chance,’ seems to be the general feeling. It is as if we have asked Harry Kane to beat King Kong in a fist fight in the depths of the jungle. Just not happening.
First, there’s the altitude of 2,240 metres and its well-documented evils, meddling with the oxygen levels and the flight of the ball. Many predict our low-lying lads will wilt. It is a legitimate worry. We have quite possibly reached the end of the road for this very reason.
Then there’s Mexico’s formidable record at their national stadium: 70 wins in 89 competitive games. Seventeen draws. Only two defeats, three if you include penalties. That’s 96.63% of those games ending without loss. This tournament, they’ve won three out of three there without conceding. Imperious!
Add onto that the feverish ’12th man’ atmosphere, the feeling that you’re playing football inside a drum, and it all seems a cocktail for disaster. But… what if it isn’t?
England face a daunting trip to the Estadio Azteca, but is it all it’s cracked up to be?
Mexico have won 70 of their 89 competitive fixtures there and lost just twice
The truth is, while it should be respected, Mexico’s history at their favourite cauldron isn’t quite so frightening when you drill down into the details.
They are currently on a 22-game unbeaten streak there, with 16 wins and six draws, but the average FIFA ranking of those opponents has been 57th in the world, according to Opta.
And those 70 competitive wins? Only four of them have come against ‘major’ footballing nations at the time. The vast majority have come against flimsier opposition. Put frankly, they have embellished their record against middleweights and nobodies.
Out of Mexico’s 89 competitive matches at the Azteca, nearly three-quarters have been played against the same seven nations from Central and Northern America.
That’s right. Sixty-two of their fixtures have been contested against the United States, Honduras, Costa Rica, Canada, Jamaica, El Salvador, and Panama (11, 11, 10, 9, 9, 6, and 6 respectively). A slim selection.
Some big names in there, granted, but that’s partly recency bias talking. For instance, out of the nine occasions they’ve hosted Canada, their opponents didn’t even have a professional league during eight of them. This is not the same as beating them in the modern era under Jesse Marsch.
A further six fixtures have come against local minnows who have never come close to getting to a World Cup: Bermuda, Suriname, Guatemala, Martinique, St Vincent and Grenadines, and Guyana. Teams you would give San Marino a chance of beating.
That’s 68 of the 89 so far. But the mediocrity of their opposition doesn’t stop there. A further 15 matches have been played against other teams who you could fairly call ‘mid-ranked’ sides.
They’ve played three against Trinidad and Tobago, then one against Haiti, Paraguay, Iraq, Bulgaria, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bolivia, New Zealand, South Africa, Czechia, and Ecuador. With the greatest respect, nobody particularly terrifying. Mexico would expect to beat most at a neutral venue. Are any a match for England, man to man?
England will struggle with the elevation, but Mexico’s record is embellished by plenty of matches against poorer teams
Mexico’s fans have been credited as a ’12th man’ by their manager Javier Aguirre and will make it hostile for the Three Lions
It means that of the 89 competitive matches Mexico have played at the Azteca, at least 82 were not a fair comparison for England’s strength.
The only ‘major’ footballing nations that Mexico have played at the Azteca competitively are Brazil, Belgium, West Germany, and the Soviet Union.
In fairness to El Tri, they have an impressive record in this department. They have defeated Brazil three times out of three: once in the 1999 Confederations Cup, and twice in the 2003 CONCACAF Gold Cup. Dig deeper, though, and you’ll notice that the latter two of those were actually against Brazil’s Under-23s.
Their two victories against Belgium come with a caveat too – this was decades ago, long before Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku were toddling around. One of them came in 1970, when Belgium were at just their second World Cup, and another came at Mexico’s home tournament in 1986. Belgium did reach the semi-finals that year.
Mexico’s first-ever competitive match at the Azteca was against the Soviet Union to open the 1970 World Cup, but they only managed a 0-0 draw. At the 1986 edition, they drew 0-0 with West Germany before losing 4-1 on penalties.
Obviously, the altitude is going to be a problem. Thomas Tuchel has admitted it is ‘impossible’ for England to adapt in time. England only set off for Mexico City on Friday afternoon, and the game is at 1am on Monday UK time. To properly acclimatise, you’d want 10 days out there.
Mexico have lost at the Azteca twice, excluding friendlies: against Costa Rica in 2001 and Honduras in 2013. It’s a fearsome boast.
But Brad Friedel, the former Premier League and USA goalkeeper, thinks the Three Lions have little to fear based on the strength of their opposition.
Former USA and Premier League goalkeeper Brad Friedel has labelled Mexico ‘below average’
‘Mexico are so average,’ he told The Rest is Football podcast. ‘I’ve played against them for years. What they do, because they’re playing in altitude, they look faster than everybody. They’re an average team, below average actually. They’re so beatable.
‘And their fans get on them. If England go there, I don’t care if they play a low block, a high block. If they score first, just get through the first 15 to 20 minutes, they will get through the game. Just don’t concede the first goal,’ continued Friedel, who, it must be said, never beat Mexico away from home.
‘What they try to do is suffocate you so you can’t get your second breath. Then they try to press and try to press.
‘Look at the games they’ve played. They’ve created five chances in each of the games, but the players are dead after 20 minutes because they’re fighting an uphill battle.
‘The altitude is no joke. The heat is no joke. But England are so much better than Mexico and it would be a complete shame if they were knocked out because of altitude.’
None of this is to trivialise Mexico’s record. It’s a remarkable run to keep up. Since 2024 alone, England have lost home friendlies to Brazil, Iceland, Senegal, and Japan, as well as a Nations League match against Greece. You can only beat the opposition in front of you and football regularly reminds us that there are no guarantees.
In any case, hopefully this article has dampened the rampant pessimism surrounding England’s trip to the clouds. If it’s any final encouragement, even Tottenham beat Mexico 1-0 at the Azteca in 1966. It wasn’t uncommon for them to play club teams in friendlies. Not so much luck for Sheffield Wednesday, though, as they lost 5-0 the next year. A tough coach journey home, that.
Intimidating? For sure. Impossible? Not at all!
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