It was a viral tweet from five years ago that famously asked the question. A video clip showed Rochdale, then in League One, scoring a beautiful, sweeping team goal made up of 16 passes that started with the team playing calmly out from defence.
‘Right, so f****** ROCHDALE scored this goal and you’re telling me Pep Guardiola isn’t having an influence on English football?’ read the accompanying caption.
The post quickly became an internet meme because, as had become increasingly clear, yes, obviously he had. Never has that been clearer than in this season’s Premier League.
In 2015-16, the season before Guardiola took the reins at the Etihad, the percentage of goal kicks in the Premier League that ended in the defensive third of the pitch was 17 per cent. Just shy of one in every six. The rest? Hoof, up the field you go.
This term, nine seasons after Guardiola’s arrival, that number stands at 61 per cent. Nearly two in three. More than half don’t even make it out of the penalty area.
In the season before Guardiola turned up, goalkeepers completed 51 per cent of their passes. Now, they complete 71 per cent of them.
Pep Guardiola’s influence has never been clearer than in this season’s Premier League
The percentage of goal kicks in the Premier League that ended in the defensive third of the pitch since 2015-16 has increased
Those numbers are increasing season after season as more and more clubs turn towards a style of play that builds from the back —and not always, as we will discover, to their benefit.
So, yes, Guardiola and his keep-ball philosophy has influenced English football in the last decade more than anyone else.
Just look at two of the new Premier League managers this season, Russell Martin at Southampton and Enzo Maresca at Chelsea. Eighty per cent of all Saints and Chelsea’s goal kicks don’t get out of their own area. Only Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham average a shorter distance.
Both are Guardiola disciples. Both are finding their principles reap different rewards.
Maresca worked with Guardiola at City. At Leicester, Mads Hermansen played more passes than any goalkeeper in Championship history. Foxes fans often found the football dull but he led them back to the Premier League at the first time of asking and is now flying with Chelsea.
Yet there are still grumbles. Fans of English clubs struggle to embrace tippy-tappy when they’ve been raised on a diet of blood and thunder. During the first half of their draws with Arsenal, loud groans greeted a misplaced pass from goalkeeper Robert Sanchez.
‘I am the guy who asks Robert to do that,’ said Maresca in his goalkeeper’s defence. ‘The moment he stops to do that, he is not going to play. Sometimes you make mistakes but it is not going to change the way we are going to play.’
Martin has a Guardiola quote from after he won the 2011 Champions League framed on the wall of his office. ‘When we win, the game model seems good and is not questioned,’ it reads.
Eighty per cent of all Chelsea’s goal kicks have ended inside their own penalty area this season
‘But bear in mind, we won’t always win. Then doubts will come. That is the moment when we will have to trust the model more than ever because the temptation to move away from it will be very strong.’
And, boy, are the doubts coming. Only City have played more passes than Saints this season but no side have lost possession in their own third more often than Martin’s men (75) and none have made more errors that have led to both shots on their goal (15) and goals conceded (6).
Southampton are bottom of the Premier League but Martin refuses to yield. The question for him, and all developing sides who play that way, is whether that is faith or folly. According to data giants Opta, only five shots have been taken this season within 30 seconds of a team taking a short goal kick. Twenty shots, however, have been conceded that way.
It shows that playing out from the back comes with a risk. If you get it wrong, in a division where sides are now so good at pressing, you get punished. There are twice as many goals from high turnovers, where a team lose the ball within 40 metres of their own goal, per game this season than there were 10 seasons ago.
Brentford have conceded six goals from such situations. Saints, four. Three each for Brighton, Ipswich and Wolves.
Burnley tried to stick to their possession guns last season and got relegated. Brighton do it now, and do it well, but they had to be practical under Chris Hughton for a bit when they first went up. It was part of a process.
And while these developing clubs under exciting young managers have played possession catch-up, other top sides are either moving away from it or are more open to play differently when required — even Guardiola.
Southampton are bottom of the Premier League but Russell Martin refuses to yield
Arsenal, with a manager in Mikel Arteta who learned his craft under Guardiola at City, go long with more than two-thirds of their goal kicks.
A quarter of City’s goal kicks go long too. It was more than a third in the previous two seasons.
In their title decider against Arsenal in 2023, Guardiola knew he needed to beat Arteta’s high press so played 4-4-2 and went long to the big man up front.
You see, Pep knows that sometimes even the most idealistic managers have to swap principles for points.
