Whether you believe them or not, many managers will insist they do not look at the league table until the season is at least ten games old.
Ten games is enough time to assess which teams are likely to be challenging for the title, which may compete for Europe and which can expect a nervous fight against relegation.
If managers follow this rule, then sporting directors should probably do so too. With clubs and fans already looking towards the January transfer window, only now can they start to understand whether their work in the summer bore fruit.
Daily Mail Sport has analysed every signing made by Premier League clubs last summer and assessed their impact on the team, based on minutes played. A player can arrive with a fine reputation yet if the coach does not fancy him, he is unlikely to make a significant impact.
Others may join to little fanfare yet quickly become vital players who feature regularly.
A glance at the Premier League table shows how important the summer has been. By making targeted signings who could improve their starting XI immediately, Arsenal have taken a leap forward and are four points clear after 11 games.
Arsenal’s great start to the season has been helped by shrewd additions like Martin Zubimendi
Tijjani Reijnders was one of seven senior permanent signings to join Man City in the summer
Similarly, Manchester City are moving in the right direction again, while Sunderland, Tottenham, Bournemouth and Manchester United are getting a tune from their main summer buys.
By contrast, apart from Joao Pedro, none of those who arrived as part of Chelsea’s £339million summer outlay have become key men.
Financial restrictions, combined with difficulties selling players, limited clubs like Aston Villa and Crystal Palace, while the less said about Nottingham Forest’s summer, the better. Of the 12 players Forest signed, only Dan Ndoye has played more than 45 per cent of possible Premier League minutes so far.
Here Daily Mail Sport examines who can head into January feeling good about themselves, and who has work to do to improve their summer business.
The winners
To see the value of Arsenal’s summer recruitment, just look at the playing time. Knowing they needed a man to set the tempo in midfield, Arsenal moved for Martin Zubimendi and sure enough, the Spain international has played 939 out of the 990 minutes of Premier League competition so far. The perfect plug-and-play signing, on the pitch for 94.9 per cent of the time.
Similarly, Victor Gyokeres (81.1 per cent) and Eberechi Eze (62.9 per cent) have been trusted by Mikel Arteta, and Noni Madueke would surely have a far higher figure than 30.9 per cent had he not suffered a knee injury in September. For top clubs finding players who can make a rapid impact on the team is no easy task. Arsenal have done so and that shows a club where the coaching and recruitment departments are aligned.
While they have not performed as spectacularly, it is a similar story at Tottenham, where Mohammed Kudus (88.8 per cent) and Joao Palhinha (87.2 per cent) instantly became regulars for Thomas Frank. Impressive work for a club who finished 17th last season.
Many clubs would struggle if they lost a goalkeeper, a left-back and a centre-back over the summer. Not Bournemouth, where the recruiters knew exactly the sort of player Andoni Iraola would need. It is no surprise that Adrien Truffert, Bafode Diakite and Djordje Petrovic have flourished.
Although Tottenham have endured a mixed start, Mohammed Kudus is already a key player
Sunderland’s bravery in signing Granit Xhaka despite the midfielder’s age has been rewarded
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Broadly speaking, this is the era when clubs think carefully before paying big fees for players in their mid-twenties or older. Yet Sunderland and Brentford’s bravery is being rewarded for signing Granit Xhaka and Jordan Henderson respectively.
Xhaka is 33 and Henderson 35. They earn high salaries and have virtually no resale value. However, Xhaka has played every minute of his side’s league matches, Henderson 84.4 per cent of them, and their class and experience is helping improve others.
Given they have had so many brickbats in recent years, it would be unfair to overlook Manchester United. Finally, they have bought players who suit the coach’s needs, with Bryan Mbeumo (96.6 per cent) leading the way and Matheus Cunha (69.1 per cent) growing in influence. Expect Senne Lammens to catch up with them soon.
Back to the drawing board
Three coaches by autumn does not reflect well on recruitment at Nottingham Forest, but what makes their summer campaign look even more puzzling is that so few of the signings have played regularly.
Dan Ndoye has been the only one to figure frequently (77 per cent of possible minutes) and Nicolo’ Savona is next on the list. Would the Italian even have reached the 43.3 per cent mark had first-choice right-back Ola Aina been fit.
It has been a similar story at West Ham. The Hammers sacked Graham Potter and hired Nuno Espirito Santo (himself dismissed by Forest in September). After 11 games, El Hadji Malick Diouf and Mateus Fernandes have been the only regulars and new goalkeeper Mads Hermansen has struggled. The less said about Wolves’ scattergun recruitment, the better, while Aston Villa continue to rely on the coaching expertise of Unai Emery.
In terms of pure recruitment, Monchi’s spell at Villa Park was a failure and his replacement Roberto Olabe needs to do much better to keep the club in the higher echelons of the league.
Of the 12 players Nottingham Forest signed, only Dan Ndoye has played more than 45 per cent of possible Premier League minutes so far which doesn’t reflect well on their recruitment
Liverpool spent a lot of money in the summer, but the likes of Florian Wirtz are struggling
Joao Pedro (R) is the only one out of Chelsea’s ten summer signings to have become a regular
Jury’s out
Chelsea signed ten players in the summer. Joao Pedro has been on the pitch nearly the whole time yet after him, there are none who have become regulars.
The tactic from the Blues seems to have been simply to flood the squad with players and distribute the minutes as evenly as possible, hoping it will keep the team fresh at the end of the campaign. Similarly at Newcastle, Nick Woltemade and Malick Thiaw have made a good impression, though Eddie Howe is still relying on the same core of players.
Brighton have deservedly been a byword for clever recruitment in recent seasons. Their latest window was odd, though. Of the new players, only Maxim De Cuyper has made an impression on the first team, and even he has accumulated only 41.8 per cent of possible minutes. It would be foolish to doubt Tony Bloom, though, who is usually thinking three or four steps ahead of most rivals.
What of Liverpool? Unlike Arsenal, whose signings were targeted and have made an immediate impact, Liverpool’s have flickered – Florian Wirtz and Milos Kerkez have played about 70 per cent of possible minutes and there are questions about whether they needed both Hugo Ekitike and Alexander Isak.
If a club has conducted its summer business well, January should be used only to make minor adjustments. For many top-flight clubs, the winter will be just as much of a scramble as the summer turned out to be.
