For so long, Pep Guardiola has defined the tactical ideas of the era, with his vision of football influencing those of his rivals. Guardiola went and the rest followed.
In Manchester City’s draw with Arsenal, however, we saw a different side to Guardiola. A very un-Pep one. It felt, if anything, as though Pep was following others’ ideals.
City sat back. They dropped deep, they sat in a low block, they soaked up pressure and they hit Arsenal on the counter. There was little of the short, neat moving of the ball we have become so accustomed to under Pep.
City’s 33 per cent possession was the lowest ever recorded by a Guardiola team in more than 600 top-flight matches of his managerial career.
It all looked a bit, well, Jose Mourinho. It so nearly worked, too.
City’s opening goal was a counter-attack of ruthless execution as Erling Haaland found Tijjani Reinders inside his own half, charged past him as Reijnders bombed forward, before being slipped in and finishing past David Raya.
Erling Haaland puts Manchester City in front at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, having taken advantage of his side’s new approach
It was a goal more akin to Haaland’s time at Borussia Dortmund than his three previous seasons at City.
Guardiola suggested his plan was partly due to player fatigue following an intense turnaround from the Manchester derby last weekend and a Champions League clash with Napoli on Thursday.
Perhaps he remembered his City side being walloped 5-1 at the Emirates last season and didn’t too much like the idea of it happening again.
You only need to look at the average position maps from the two games to see the stark difference. From front-foot, to a bus with the handbrake on. City even dropped into a back five for the last 20 minutes.
On the left, Manchester City’s average positions for the 5-1 loss at Arsenal on February 2, and on the right how they changed to form a back five for Sunday’s match
The irony of it all was that the moment City abandoned his Mourinho-esque plan, in the third minute of stoppage time, they conceded the equaliser.
Instead of dropping back when a passer of Eberechi Eze’s quality had the ball just inside his own half, City stepped up, Gabriel Martinelli made his run and sent the Emirates Stadium into raptures.
Eberechi Eze floats a long pass in behind Manchester City’s defence for Gabriel Martinelli to run onto and equalise for Arsenal
City had nearly been caught out the same way midway through the first half when Mikel Merino almost picked out Leandro Trossard running in behind after Viktor Gyokeres came short to link-up play and dragged Ruben Dias with him.
Mikel Merino (23) looks to pick out Leandro Trossard as City are caught high up the pitch
But for so much of the match, City had kept their deep shape as shown below, when Arsenal had the ball in a similar area of the pitch with around an hour played.
City’s massed ranks face up to the Arsenal attacks in the second half, with nine players in a tight radius to deny the hosts space
So, is this the new City? Has Pep Guardiola… changed?
‘We try to not be like this,’ he said after the game last night. ‘But when the opponent is better, and we defend deeper, we will counter. But we try not to play like this.’
Only that’s not quite right. City have played like this for much of the season so far.
In every season under Guardiola, City have averaged the highest possession of any side in the division. This season, they sit eighth, posting their lowest-ever numbers and averaging less than even Nottingham Forest and Manchester United, both of whom are known for their counter-attacking.
That 33 per cent figure against Arsenal will drag that average down. It’s a small sample size of only five matches but their possession is just 52.3 per cent so far, a drop-off of 10-15 percentage points on their usual numbers.
They had a minority of possession against United and in only one match this season have they had as much as last season’s average of 62 per cent.
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Guardiola tried to remind his Sky Sports interviewer last night that counter-attacking is nothing new to his City side.
‘You remember Leroy Sane and Raheem Sterling,’ he asked. ‘You remember how many counter-attacks we did, with Kevin De Bruyne? You remember?’
We do remember, Pep, but even that wasn’t to this level.
So far this season City have attempted the most ‘fast breaks’ – what Opta define as ‘an attempt created after a team quickly turn defence into attack, winning the ball in their own half’ – in the Premier League. In other words, a counter-attack.
Last season, City ranked 16th for fast breaks. The season before, 17th. Haaland’s goal against Arsenal was his second coming from a fast break in the space of a week, following his second in the 3-0 win over Manchester United. That’s already more than he managed last season, and he’s never scored more than two in a single campaign.
It was City’s third as a team, with the other coming on the opening day when Haaland and Reijnders flew forward and the latter slotted in his first goal for the club on debut. Again, this is the most of any side in the league so far, and as many as Guardiola’s side managed in the entirety of 2024-25.
| PL 2025-26 | Total fast breaks | Shots from fast breaks | Goals from fast breaks |
|---|---|---|---|
| MAN CITY | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| Liverpool | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| Man Utd | 8 | 8 | 0 |
| Nott’m Forest | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Bournemouth | 6 | 4 | 2 |
‘One time parking the bus in 10 years isn’t bad, right?’ said Guardiola, who tried to play down the tactical approach after the game. But it’s clear there’s been a shift.
Pep has always been a manager to adapt his styles and systems. Inverted full backs, false nines, Fabian Delph at left back.
City struggled last season to keep up as so many of their rivals shifted towards a more direct style of play.
Haaland also used the counter-attack to full effect against Manchester United, streaking away to make it 3-0
Injury to Rodri and the ageing midfield legs of the likes of De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan left them ill-equipped to deal with opposition counter-attacks while the improving standard of pressing across the division meant teams were far more adept at disrupting City’s patient style.
And so, once again, Pep is trying to come up with a different way. Only two league wins so far suggests he’s still trying to figure it out. But he’s got pace to burn in Jeremy Doku. Reijnders’ ability to carry the ball is a huge weapon.
It even gets more from Haaland, who can use his strength and stride to open up space across more of the pitch. Once he was at full pelt at the Emirates, centre back Gabriel was never going to catch him.
Back in January, Guardiola remarked that ‘modern football is the way that Bournemouth play, that Newcastle play, Brighton play. Modern football is not so positional. You need to rise to the rhythm’. And for once, Guardiola is clearly trying to follow that new groove.
