Like many Arsenal fans, Ian Wright reacted to last weekend’s defeat against Bournemouth by despairing at his side’s Premier League title hopes supposedly ‘falling away’.
‘Watching the games, it hurts. There’s a pain that’s hurting me. It’s killing me,’ he told friends and co-hosts Gary Neville, Roy Keane and Paul Scholes on The Overlap podcast earlier this week.
Opta’s analysts, however, are taking a typically less emotional and more mathematical view of who will be crowned champions – and how this weekend’s crunch meeting at the Etihad may shape the race.
Manchester City host Arsenal on Sunday (4.30pm kick-off), with Mikel Arteta’s side aiming to halt a run of three domestic defeats.
City triggered that sequence by beating Arsenal in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley, before Southampton knocked them out of the FA Cup either side of the international break.
Arsenal then slipped to a 2-1 home defeat by Bournemouth last weekend, leaving the door ajar in the title race. Pep Guardiola’s side – renowned for hitting top form at this stage of the season – duly capitalised, sweeping Chelsea aside 3-0 at Stamford Bridge.
City play Arsenal at the weekend and also have a game in hand against Crystal Palace, still to be scheduled, and victory in both fixtures would draw them level at the summit
Despite the anxiety around the Emirates, Opta still make Arsenal favourites for the title – even if they rate City as marginally more likely winners on Sunday
Despite the anxiety around the Emirates, Opta still make Arsenal favourites for the title – even if they rate City as marginally more likely winners on Sunday.
Their model gives Arsenal a 35.8 per cent chance of victory at the Etihad, compared with City’s 37.7 per cent.
Recent history, though, offers encouragement for the visitors: Arsenal are unbeaten in their last five Premier League meetings with City (two wins, three draws), having lost the previous 12.
In terms of the title race, Opta suggest an Arsenal win would all but seal their first Premier League crown since 2003-04, lifting their chances to 98 per cent and leaving City with just 2 per cent.
A draw – a plausible outcome given City have not lost at the Etihad since their opening home game in August – would still leave Guardiola’s side needing Arsenal to drop at least three points from their final five matches.
In that scenario, Arsenal’s title probability would rise to 89 per cent (from 85.7 per cent).
A stalemate is also the only route to a highly improbable play-off. After the sides’ 1-1 draw at the Emirates in September – when Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time lob cancelled out Erling Haaland’s opener – they would be level head-to-head.
Points, goal difference and goals scored would still all need to be identical on the final day, but it would open up the tantalising prospect of a title decider at a neutral venue for the first time in the competition’s history.
An Arsenal defeat, meanwhile, would inject real drama into the run-in, though Opta still give them a 69 per cent chance of going on to lift the trophy.
City’s chances would rise to 31 per cent, reflecting the model’s view that their remaining fixtures are tougher than Arsenal’s.
Even if City do manage to beat Arsenal at the weekend, they would also have to win their game in hand against Crystal Palace – a game which is still to be scheduled – to draw level at the summit.
Either way, this weekend promises to add another compelling twist to the closing weeks of the season.
