The impacts of the government’s welfare cuts are likely to push tens of thousands more people into poverty than previously predicted, a major foodbank charity has warned.
Trussell said 340,000 more people in disabled households could face hunger and hardship by the end of the decade.
It comes as more than 150 Labour MPs expressed concern over the plans last month, which include a tightening of the eligibility criteria for personal independence payment (Pip) – the main disability benefit in England – and cutting the sickness-related element of universal credit (UC).
The proposals also include delaying access to the health element of UC to those aged 22 and over, with the aim of reinvesting savings to support young people into work or training.
The package of measures is aimed at reducing the number of working-age people on sickness benefits, and the government hopes they can save £5bn a year by the end of the decade.
But it is understood that the plans sparked growing upset among both parliamentary private secretaries (PPSs) and even government ministers, who were said to be considering quitting if the government failed to water down its proposals.
A government impact assessment published alongside the reforms warned some 250,000 people – including 50,000 children – across England, Scotland and Wales could fall into relative poverty after housing costs as a result of the changes.
But Trussell said the impact is likely to be worse, with its report, based on analysis it commissioned by public policy experts WPI Economics, claiming that overall some 440,000 people in disabled households will be forced into severe hardship and at risk of needing a food bank in 2029/30, if the reforms go ahead.
A planned rise in the basic rate UC in 2029 should lift around 95,000 people out of severe hardship, Trussell said, leaving the total number affected closer to the 340,000 figure – once rounding of numbers and any movement of the poverty line in future years is accounted for.
Trussell said its report’s calculations are based on the Social Metrics Commission’s definition of severe hardship as being when people are more than 25 per cent below the poverty line, saying this captures both people who are likely to need to turn to a food bank now and those at high risk of needing support from one in future.
Helen Barnard, director of policy at Trussell, said the calculations they have come to present a worse picture than previously thought, “because we have looked at how many people are going to be pulled, not just into overall poverty but into the severest form of hardship”.
She added: “That’s important because the lower your income, the worse your hardship, the more damage it does. So the more likely you are to not be able to afford essentials like food, the worse the impact on your health, on your prospects.
“So the amount of damage that’s being done is even worse than the Government’s impact assessment suggested.”
She said while Trussell supports the government’s aim to reform employment support and help more people into work, “these proposed cuts will utterly undermine this goal”, adding: “Slashing support will damage people’s health and reduce their ability to engage in training and work.”
The Joseph Rowntree Foundation backed Trussell’s calls for the government to rethink the disability benefit cuts, saying: “This analysis shows they are likely to create more deep poverty and hardship than even the bleak forecast from the Government’s own limited assessments.”
Trussell is also calling on the government to bring forward the planned increase to the basic rate of Universal Credit so it comes into full effect from April 2026, instead of waiting until April 2029.
It comes after more than 100 MPs – understood to comprise primarily those who won their seats for the first time in 2024 – last month signed a letter to the chief whip warning that they are unable to support the proposals in their current form.
It is understood that a separate letter signed by around 40 MPs was sent to Sir Keir just days earlier, warning against proceeding with the changes in their full form.
A government spokesperson said: “This government is determined to change people’s lives for the better, helping them out of poverty and tackling the unacceptable rise in food bank dependence in recent years.
“We will never compromise on protecting people who need our support, and our reforms will mean the social security system will always be there for those who will never be able to work, and that their income is protected.”
