Lord Sugar’s approach to football’s transfer market came to mind with the big ‘game’s gone’ moment of the international break – Southampton’s £100million valuation of Tyler Dibling.
It seems a tad steep, a dangerous investment even, for a teenager who could not wait to retreat to St Mary’s a month or so after signing for Chelsea in the summer of 2022.
The same year, incidentally, in which Serbian businessman Dragan Solak bankrolled Sport Republic’s takeover of the Saints, buying a controlling stake in the club for £100m.
So, what could have bought you to the whole shooting match less than three years ago, will now get you one prodigiously gifted 19-year with 25 Premier League appearances and a couple of goals.
Inflation? Or as Sugar used to bark at those who came shopping for his players when he owned Tottenham, ‘lobster’. Which translates as, ‘price of the day’.
How many are there to go round? How many people want one? How desperate are they?
Southampton’s £100million valuation of Tyler Dibling dropped jaws, despite his immense talent
The 19-year-old has stood out as a rare light in a dark season for the southern coastal club
But will clubs be willing to take a gamble at such a price when so many prodigies don’t deliver?
At the top end of the Premier League, they look desperate. There has never been such clamour for teenage potential.
Earlier this month, Chelsea agreed to pay £44million for Geovany Quenda, a 17-year-old winger cum wing-back at Sporting who figured prominently on the wish list of Ruben Amorim at Manchester United.
Last year they beat fierce competition to sign Estevao Willian, also 17 and Brazil’s latest heir apparent to Neymar, from Palmeiras in a deal starting at £28m.
Before that they signed Kendry Paez, Ecuador’s 17-year-old version of the above for £17m.
Big bucks when there’s no knowing how any of them might develop. How they will adapt to English football. To changing expectations and changing tactical fashions.
Or whether they avoid the usual pitfalls, such as injuries and tests of motivation amid life-changing wealth.
There’s still scope for things to go awry from the age of 17, although to the moneymen in the distasteful business of commodifying footballers, maybe it doesn’t matter anymore.
Get them young enough, spread cost over several years on the balance sheet, apply the ‘superclub’ stamp, and they might still make a profit in a few years even if it turns out they’re not the next Lamine Yamal.
Clubs are willing to spend big on teenagers – Chelsea splashed £44m on Geovany Quenda, 17
However, Mathys Tel has yet to impact Bayern Munich or Tottenham much, despite his promise
Only Dean Huijsen at Bournemouth has played more Premier League minutes among teenagers
Tottenham won a scramble to sign Mathys Tel on loan in February. Tel is 19 and has yet to crack the first team at Bayern Munich, who signed him from Rennes for £17m when he was 17.
He has yet to make much of an impact at Spurs, who have an option to convert the loan into a permanent deal for £50m.
Dibling is nine months younger than Tel and already made an impression as a Premier League footballer albeit one sparkling in a poor team.
No teenager has made more Premier League appearances this season. And only Dean Huijsen, the Bournemouth defender attracting interest from Real Madrid, has started more Premier League games or played more minutes.
Experienced scouts who know about these things tell me one factor setting Dibling apart is an ‘uncoachable’ ability to beat opponents with the ball in tight areas, a precious gift for any coach trying to pick a way through well-organised opponents and crowded defences.
Those who flocked to see him play for England U19s against Wales during the recent break would have been searching for clues as to what he can do when his team dominate the ball, as opposed to threatening into open spaces on the turnover of possession.
There’s also the premium of a homegrown player to satisfy quotas, and Saints can claim to have done some of the dirty work, knocking the realities of defensive responsibility into his game at a senior level.
Spurs and Manchester United, where Southampton’s former director of football Jason Wilcox is now in the same role, are among those keenest on Dibling but certainly not alone.
Dibling has an ‘uncoachable’ ability to beat opponents in tight areas, scouts tell Mail Sport
Fourteen Premier League clubs have declared an interest in him, Mail Sport understands
£100m was enough to take over Southampton in 2022, but now it will get you one player
Fourteen Premier League clubs have declared an interest according to my Mail Sport colleague Chris Wheeler.
There is interest, too, from the Bundesliga. Dibling is represented by reputable German agency ROOF, who have become influential in the UK, with English players on the books including Liverpool’s Harvey Elliott, and British agents on the payroll, including Neil Fewings who orchestrated Virgil van Dijk’s transfer from Southampton to Anfield.
All of which will be music to the ears of the accountants at St Mary’s. Nothing will drive up the price of lobster like an auction, as they found when selling Romeo Lavia at the age of 19, two years ago, and Chelsea outbid Liverpool.
That was 2023, a year when big clubs went shopping for central midfielders. West Ham banked £105m from Arsenal for Declan Rice, and Chelsea spent more than £250m on three: Enzo Fernandez, Moises Caicedo and Lavia.
Buying clubs prepared to invest have made it a volatile market. They might not get £100m but who can blame Southampton if they expect the price of the day?
FIVE THINGS I LEARNED THIS WEEK
1: BBC Sport have decided extra time has had its day and can no longer present an FA Cup tie without moaning about the inconvenience. I know Nottingham Forest’s win at Brighton wasn’t a thriller and I can see how it must play havoc with the schedule. But it’s as if they don’t really like football, they just like goals, with disturbing echoes of the start of cricket’s T20 revolution, ultimately won by the people who didn’t like cricket but liked sixes.
2: Brighton have a fine reputation for producing goalkeepers. Carl Rushworth and James Beadle, both England U21 internationals, will be in the conversation if Bayern Munich swoop for Bart Verbruggen. The latest stepping out is Lorenz Ferdinand, 18-year-old son of Rio, who made his debut on loan from Brighton at Havant and Waterlooville in the Southern League, on Saturday, a 3-1 win at Marlow.
3: Brazil have won just six of 14 World Cup qualifiers. Enough to cost boss Dorival Junior his job but there is no danger of them missing the cut for the World Cup. In line with recent developments in Europe, jeopardy has been removed from football in other hemispheres.
The BBC should stop moaning about extra-time – it’s as if they don’t like football, but just goals
Brazil have sacked Dorival Junior, but there is no jeopardy in their World Cup qualifying run
New Gillingham boss Gareth Ainsworth is set to launch a podcast about the relationship between football and music
4: Three into two at the top of the Championship could produce the most exciting part of this season’s finale. I’d expect Sheffield United to finish in the top two but if they fall just short, they will know the blame lies with the Prince Abdullah regime, who sold the club in December after invoking a two-point penalty by failing to pay the bills on time.
5: Gareth Ainsworth will launch a podcast this coming week called ‘Shall We Sing a Song 4U’ exploring the relationship between football and music with commentator Alan Parry and guests, first up Stuart Pearce. Ainsworth, who quit Shrewsbury to become Gillingham’s fifth permanent manager in the last 18 months, might be caught between a rock n ball podcast and a hard place.
