The Premier League title race isn’t just on, it’s reaching its crescendo.
Until last weekend, it seemed as though Arsenal were conducting a perfect symphony, and the title was all but theirs. But then bang, a sour note against Bournemouth has changed the tune of this race.
Now the Gunners are in a real fight with Manchester City, who they face this Sunday at the Etihad for one of the biggest title showdowns we have seen in the modern game.
Mikel Arteta’s leaders are six points clear of City, who have a game in hand, and know that avoiding defeat will put them within touching distance of winning the top flight for the first time in 22 years.
It’s a true title decider. One that has real ramifications on where the trophy will end up come the end of May.
However, there is a chance – albeit very slim – that this may not be the final time that the two go head-to-head for the title this season. The possibility of a play-off between Arsenal and Manchester City is still on the cards.
Manchester City and Arsenal face off in a huge title race six-pointer at the Etihad on Sunday
Obviously, the Premier League is decided on points first, but if nothing can split the teams there, then goal difference is brought into play, before a whole host of other metrics may be needed.
The only way a play-off can even become possible, though, is if City and Arsenal draw 1-1 at the Etihad this weekend.
Why is that? It’s because it would leave the teams with the exact same head-to-head record, after their 1-1 draw at the Emirates in September, which saw Gabriel Martinelli’s stoppage-time lob cancel out Erling Haaland’s storming opener.
If that result was to come in, and the teams couldn’t be separated on goals scored either, then a play-off would come into play.
It would be played as just a one-off game at a neutral venue of the Premier League’s choice.
We are currently a long way off a play-off being needed, though, with Arsenal clear at the top on 70 points, compared to City’s 64.
They would also then need to lose one of their final five games after the title showdown this weekend, with City winning their game in hand. All of their opponents after this weekend are currently in the bottom half.
They still have to face Newcastle at the Emirates, Fulham at Craven Cottage, West Ham at the London Stadium, Burnley at home, and finish off with Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park on the final day. The Gunners beat all five of those teams in the reverse fixtures.
If the teams draw 1-1 like they did at the Emirates in September, there is a possibility of a post-season play-off for the title
Meanwhile, City, who have won six Premier League titles under Pep Guardiola, still have to face Burnley at Turf Moor, Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium, Brentford at the Etihad, Bournemouth at the Vitality Stadium, Palace at home, and European-chasing Aston Villa visit them to finish off their campaign. A much tougher run-in.
In the other so-called ‘tiebreakers’, Arsenal are slightly better off than their rivals on goal difference. They have scored one more goal than Guardiola’s side, and have conceded two fewer.
But that will all change if City beat the leaders in front of their own fans.
Everything is building towards that mammoth title clash at the Etihad. It is coming at a time when the league leaders are looking like a side desperately trying to rediscover their imperious form.
Arsenal are still in the driving seat, as the table showcases, but unless they improve on recent performances, which has seen them win only one game from their last five, then City will beat them on Sunday, just like they did in the Carabao Cup final last month.
