Vaping anxiously behind the glass of his private box at Alaves’ Mendizorroza Stadium on Sunday, Carlo Ancelotti looked worried.
It might have been because he was banned and so unable to influence proceedings as his side were hanging on to a 1-0 lead with 10 men after Kylian Mbappe had been sent off. But it could also have been because his hold on the Real Madrid job is loosening.
He knows Xabi Alonso is waiting in the wings and Champions League exit at the hands of Arsenal on Wednesday night, along with a failure to catch Barcelona in La Liga — they are four points clear with seven matches to play — will mean Madrid change coaches this summer.
The Italian has struggled all season with the conundrum of a top-heavy, woefully imbalanced squad and is no closer to coming up with the answer, hours ahead of the biggest game of the season.
The team’s famed history of epic comebacks in this competition, and the possibility that Mbappe and Vinicius Jr will click in a way they have not really done all season, are branches for the 64-year-old to cling to.
‘We had a very bad half hour and just couldn’t react,’ said Ancelotti after the first leg. ‘We relied on individuals doing something, we were not compact, we haven’t been all season.’
Carlo Ancelotti and Real Madrid have a stiff task up ahead when they take on Arsenal
A Declan Rice double put Arsenal ahead before Mikel Merino completed the first leg win
The arrival of Kylian Mbappe gave Ancelotti a tactical conundrum he has struggled to solve
He has started saying out loud what he has been thinking since the summer, when Toni Kroos was not replaced and he was tasked with accommodating Vinicius and Mbappe’s fierce talents, tremendous egos and preference for playing in the same part of the pitch, without a sufficiently robust midfield or defence behind them.
Mbappe let his team-mates down at the weekend. His violent lunge could have broken Antonio Blanco’s leg and the resulting red card left Madrid struggling, just when they needed an easy afternoon.
They did win the game, with their first clean sheet in ten matches. At the end, Antonio Rudiger could be seen shouting ‘remontada!’ (‘comeback’) as he went to greet Madrid’s travelling support.
They held up banners featuring the same word. It is all they have talked about since the Emirates debacle.
With slightly more detachment and reasoning, television pundit and former Barcelona player Gerard Lopez said on Sunday: ‘I don’t see them doing it, simply because of the way they are playing.’
Ancelotti is pondering various changes to his first leg line-up. He has his best defensive midfielder Aurelien Tchouameni back from suspension and could move Fede Valverde into midfield alongside him in the absence of Eduardo Camavinga, who is banned after his late red card at the Emirates.
Valverde, the dynamic Uruguayan, has far greater influence from the middle of the pitch, although it will mean converted winger and unconvincing defender Lucas Vazquez has to start at right back.
The alternative is to start former Arsenal midfielder Dani Ceballos, who is back after a six-week lay-off.
Eduardo Camavinga (left) will miss the second leg after being sent off late on last week
Ancelotti’s position is under increasing pressure with Xabi Alonso waiting in the wings
He had been the closest thing Ancelotti has found to the departed Kroos before his hamstring injury. Mbappe’s red card on Sunday ruined plans to give him a half hour run out.
Whatever side Ancelotti picks, the ‘Four Fantastics’ look non- negotiable. Mbappe, Vinicius, Rodrygo and Jude Bellingham have scored 80 goals between them but, Bellingham aside, the work ethic is often conspicuous by its absence and against better teams Madrid have been overwhelmed because of it.
Twice Barcelona have trounced them (5-2 in the Spanish Super Cup final and 4-0 in La Liga). Milan and Liverpool have also beaten them. Of their really big games, only Manchester City have not had the measure of Ancelotti’s team.
A recent poll in Spain’s Diario AS had 53 per cent of the 14,000 who voted blaming ‘bad planning’ for the potentially hugely underwhelming season. The players were blamed by 30 per cent and only 17 per cent pointed the finger at the coach.
But that will not save Ancelotti if they go out on Wednesday night, although Real’s appetite for the epic might.
Six of the last 11 Champions Leagues have been won by the Spanish club and those triumphs have been replete with various glorious resurrections. ‘If any team is capable of it then it’s this one,’ said Vazquez.
‘Anything can happen at the Bernabeu,’ added Bellingham.
Supporters will greet the team bus with the traditional wall of noise and fog of flares, but for Madrid to overturn the first leg they will need a performance that they have not managed all season and for Arsenal to fold.
Federico Valverde is arguably the club’s best midfielder and could move back into the middle
Aurelien Tchouameni (left) will return back from suspension for the second leg in a key boost
Italian boss Ancelotti has won the Champions League more than any other manager in history
Ancelotti, who will swap his vape for his handfuls of chewing gum back on the touchline, has won this competition more than anybody and knows his team have a chance, despite the odds.
But he also knows that Madrid have not scored a Champions League goal for 245 minutes and have conceded 11 in their last five games.
They also picked up only 15 points from a possible 24 in the league stage and Vinicius has not scored in Europe since January, as well as not going past his man once at the Emirates.
The club’s historical tendency towards the extraordinary says they can do it. Logic says they, and their coach, are on their way out.
Asked for his own state of mind going into the game, Ancelotti replied: ‘This isn’t my first match of this sort in this competition. I hope it will not be my last.’
