Restore Britain voters are set to sweep Andy Burnham to victory in Makerfield, according to a new poll that suggests a split in the right-wing vote could hamper Reform UK’s chances.
Constituency polling seen by The Independent suggests Rupert Lowe’s hard-right party has won over enough voters to prevent Nigel Farage’s candidate Robert Kenyon from claiming victory over Labour in the crucial by-election.
According to the poll, the mayor of Greater Manchester has a narrow lead – on 46 per cent – while Mr Kenyon trails five points behind on 41 per cent.
Meanwhile, Restore Britain’s Rebecca Shepherd is on roughly 7 per cent. It means she could be the deciding factor in swinging the contest in Mr Burnham’s favour – and determining whether he will return to Westminster to challenge Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.
But Mr Burnham’s lead in the poll is within the margin of error, which is just under 5 per cent, and the margin of late-campaign movement – meaning it is too close to call.
The polling of 543 adults, with undecided and non-voters removed, was conducted by Opinium for campaign group Forward democracy and is the largest constituency poll done to date ahead of Thursday’s contest.
The Conservatives are on around 2.5 per cent, while the Greens and Lib Dems are each below 2 per cent, meaning they would all lose their deposit, the poll shows.
Restore Britain was founded by Mr Lowe after he was suspended from Reform UK last year amid claims he had threatened then-party chairman Zia Yusuf.
He denied the allegations and the Crown Prosecution Service said no criminal charges would be brought against him in relation to alleged threats towards Mr Yusuf.
The party – which until now has largely been based in Lowe’s constituency Great Yarmouth – is further to the right than Reform on issues such as immigration.
Mr Farage has attempted to diminish the impact of Restore Britain’s presence in the by-election, insisting the contest was a “two-horse race” between Labour and Reform, but it is already clear that the fledgling party is poaching Reform’s voters.
Earlier this week, the UK’s leading pollster Professor Sir John Curtice said that polls suggest Restore Britain could “make the difference between Reform winning or not winning”.
“They are largely picking up the same kind of people as Reform. The national polls suggest they’re picking up the younger end of Reform support,” he told The Independent, adding that Restore Britain is more likely to be a “potential spoiler than a significant player”.
He said: “Their 6 or 7 per cent of the vote could be larger than, or similar to, what might be the Labour lead over Reform.”
Forward Democracy, which runs a tactical voting website, Stop Reform UK, said the poll cements Mr Burnham as “the only candidate who can stop” Mr Farage’s party.
“If you live in Makerfield and you would normally vote Green, Liberal Democrat, or anyone else, and you don’t want Reform UK to win this seat, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop them,” founder Tom de Grunwald said.
James Crouch, Head of Policy & Public Affairs Research at Opinium said: “Andy Burnham enters the final week of the Makerfield by-election campaign ahead, but narrowly so.
“Labour’s five-point lead is smaller than Restore Britain’s current vote share, suggesting that a divided anti-Labour vote may be enough to deliver victory this time, but could leave Burnham vulnerable in future general elections.”
Mr Burnham’s team is understood to already be organising his Downing Street operation and sounding out candidates to join his top team, including cabinet roles, in the expectation he will become leader and prime minister after returning to parliament.
Details of Mr Burnham’s preparations for No 10 include looking at an overhaul of communications in Downing Street, which has been identified as one of Sir Keir’s greatest weaknesses.
He is also starting to set out cabinet roles, with Louise Haigh and deputy leader Lucy Powell among those expected to be included.
It is understood that deputy prime minister David Lammy and chief whip Jonathan Reynolds are on a list of ministers likely to be sacked by Mr Burnham, who pointedly promised to end the suspension of rebel MP Karl Turner, a vocal critic of Mr Lammy’s reforms to jury trials.
