Mark Twain famously wrote ‘the report of my death was an exaggeration’, after his obituary had been mistakenly published.
That was back in 1897, but a similar sentiment could well apply to Aidan O’Brien’s 2026 Flat campaign which was this week analysed using Timeform’s ‘Run to Form’ metric.
The microscopic scrutiny conducted by the racing organisation revealed that this July is the most unsuccessful month on record for the Ballydoyle handler since the metric was first introduced 14 years ago.
But not only that, Timeform also revealed their data showed that the current Flat season represents the worst for O’Brien since 2012.
Not a great omen then for his four runners in today’s King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes.
O’Brien goes in search of his fifth success in the summer showpiece and should Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini prevail, it will be his first victory with a three-year-old in the Group One since 2001 with Galileo.
But hang on…, it seems just five minutes ago that the talk in racing was about O’Brien chasing his own record of Group One wins in a season off the back of a record-equalling seven successes at Royal Ascot.
Benvenuto Cellini goes off at around 5-1 today, behind favourite and defending champion Calandagan
Those array of victories came hard on the heels of Christmas Day’s Betfred Derby win at Epsom and preceded a brilliant display by Constitution River in the Coral-Eclipse.
Surely reports of his demise are premature.
A Thursday night Group race double at Leopardstown may signal the Ballydoyle machine is about to crank back into full gear following a brief mid-summer malaise.
One thing we can all take on trust is that it will not be long before O’Brien is once again namechecking his entire roster of staff following another Group One win.
Who knows, it could be after today’s fabulous feature, but with equine stars from around the world tackling Benvenuto Cellini and Minnie Hauk, both Ballydoyle contenders will be required to post clear career bests to prevail.
The market favours last year’s conquering hero Calandagan, who is back to defend his crown. He renews rivalry with Japanese raider Masquerade Ball, who ran him to a head in an epic renewal of the Japan Cup in Tokyo last November.
Calandagan enjoyed a Saint-Cloud confidence booster three weeks ago following his Coronation Cup no-show, while Masquerade Ball lost nothing in defeat attempting to outspeed the imperious Romantic Warrior on his home patch at Sha Tin in the spring.
The old adversaries form a formidable road block for their rivals to navigate, but could last year’s runner-up Kalpana, the home team’s sole representative in a cosmopolitan affair, trouble the overseas posse and hand trainer Andrew Balding an emotional success?
Aidan O’Brien has not won the King George with a three-year-old since 2001
Andrew’s father, Ian, won this prize 55 years ago with one of Flat racing’s all-time greats in the mighty Mill Reef and, although Balding’s mare could not yet be mentioned in those circles, she has at least accumulated an impressive Ascot record.
Her handler is certainly optimistic and his confidence was increased when his star mare worked well in the lead-up to this race as she bids to turnaround a length defeat by Calandagan in last year’s renewal.
‘She worked really well, and I’m very happy with her,’ reported Balding.
‘We were struggling to get weight off her last year, but this year it seems to be easier.
‘She’s very good on her day and loves Ascot, so I’m pretty sure she’ll be there or thereabouts, ‘Calandagan is a very good horse. We couldn’t match him last year, but who knows this year?’
