Ukrainian forces are rapidly losing ground in the Kursk region amid a major Russian offensive to recapture land which Kyiv hoped could be a crucial bargaining chip in peace negotiations.
In an attempt to divert Russian forces from the brutal frontlines in eastern Ukraine – and embarrass Vladimir Putin – Ukraine smashed across the border into the Kursk region in August, the biggest attack on Russian territory since the Nazi invasion of 1941.
Putin visited the western region for the first time since its seizure on Wednesday, in a sign of the confidence Moscow has that they will retake complete control of the region.
Moscow claims that recent advances from its forces have left Ukrainian troops with less 200 square km (77 square miles) in Kursk, down from 1,300 square km (500 square miles) at the peak of the incursion.
Ukraine’s top army commander, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said on Wednesday that Kyiv’s troops would keep operating in Kursk as long as needed.
The Independent details how and why Ukraine seized Kursk, and what will happen if Russia retakes the entire territory.
When did Ukraine seize Kursk?
In early August 2024, reports emerged that a few hundred Ukrainian troops had staged an incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.
Within days, the Ukrainian operation went far beyond anyone’s expectations, was far bigger than anyone had expected, extending to a pocket of territory which Kyiv said measured 1,376 sq km (530 sq miles) at its peak and included about 100 towns and villages.
One of those towns was Sudzha, the largest town captured by Ukraine in the offensive. Commander Syrskyi, said on Wednesday that Kyiv’s troops are still fighting in and around the town, despite the Kremlin claiming that Russian forces have retaken control.
Why was the land important for Ukraine?
Seizing much of Kursk had a number of strategic benefits for Ukraine.
Although a tiny fraction of the area which Russia has captured from Ukraine since 2014, the attack on Kursk gave Ukraine its largest gains against Russian forces for two years – when its forces retook swathes of territory in Ukraine in a summer 2022 offensive.
It also proved a major morale boost for Ukrainian troops, wearied by years of battling Russia’s invasion. The operation had stunned Russia and proved Kyiv could still seize the initiative in what was becoming a gruelling war of attrition.
Kyiv also hoped it would slow Russia’s advances in its eastern regions, forcing Moscow to redirect troops to defend its own territory.
Perhaps most crucially, President Volodymyr Zelensky had hoped the pocket of land could be used as a bargaining chip for peace negotiations, saying as recently as last month that the territory could be traded for Ukrainian territory under Russian control.
How has Russia responded?
The invasion was humiliating for president Vladimir Putin, who desperately tried to play down its military impact.
Since then, Russian forces – bolstered by thousands of North Korean troops sent by Putin-ally Kim Jong-un – have sought to claw back most of that land. The North Korean troops began arriving in Kursk from late October as part of a mutual defence pact agreed between Putin and Kim.
Putin has never acknowledged their role on the battlefield but Ukraine and its allies say the North Koreans have played an active part in fighting and sustained heavy casualties.
Deep State, an authoritative open-source intelligence site that charts the frontlines of the war, updated its battlefield map to show Ukrainian forces were no longer in control of Sudzha, the biggest town Ukraine controlled in Kursk. Fighting continued on the outskirts, DeepState said.
Ukrainian sources said that Donald Trump’s pause in military intelligence sharing with Kyiv after a clash with Mr Zelensky at a White House meeting two weeks ago may have contributed to the accelerating Russian gains. Speaking to The Independent, a senior ministerial advisor said: “Kursk shows what happens when we don’t have [US intelligence].”
The US agreed to resume the intelligence sharing on Tuesday, after talks between officials from Washington and Kyiv in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.
Putin arrived in Kursk on Wednesday, paying his first visit since Kyiv’s lightning offensive last August.
“Our task in the near future, in the shortest possible timeframe, is to decisively defeat the enemy entrenched in the Kursk region,” he told generals in televised remarks, dressed in green military gear. It is a rarity to see Putin in military fatigues.
What happens next?
Losing territory in Kursk could damage both the morale of Ukrainian troops and be detrimental to its bargaining power round the negotiating table.
It would also intensify pressure on Mr Zelensky as he attempts to navigate a turbulent relationship with the Trump administration – which is pushing Ukraine to accept long-term peace with Russia.
But there is also pressure on Putin, as the United States urges him to join a proposed 30-day ceasefire that Ukraine told Washington on Tuesday it was ready to support.
Putin’s surprise visit to Kursk in combat gear appears aimed at sending a signal of military resolve to the West, while making clear to his own forces to ensure the ejection of Ukrainian forces before entering any negotiation to end the war.
