Tottenham, West Ham and Nottingham Forest all winning over the weekend has put a huge club under the unexpected threat of relegation.
A football data expert has predicted the results of all remaining Premier League fixtures this season and explained how Newcastle United could unexpectedly suffer relegation to the Championship alongside Burnley and Wolves.
While most fans are viewing the relegation battle as a straight fight between Spurs and West Ham, there are several scenarios that could see both survive in the division, with Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Leeds and Nottingham Forest all yet to secure their safety mathematically.
TikTok account aaronw_data has revealed how Eddie Howe’s side could be relegated on 43 points, albeit under unlikely circumstances.
Newcastle, who have lost their last four league games, would need to lose to both Forest and the Hammers and pick up just one point against Brighton next weekend or Fulham on the final day of the season.
Meanwhile, Roberto De Zerbi’s side would need to go on a run of three wins from four games, defeating Leeds and two of Aston Villa, Chelsea or Everton.
A football data expert has revealed how Eddie Howe’s Newcastle could still suffer relegation
It would be a tough ask for Spurs, whose victory over Wolves was only their first Premier League win of 2026, but it is not inconceivable now they have started to gain some momentum.
Forest would crucially need to beat the Magpies and claim an additional three points in their final three games against Chelsea, Manchester United or Bournemouth.
West Ham’s role in Newcastle’s unlikely relegation would be defeating Howe’s men at at St James’ Park and drawing with Leeds on the last day of the season, while also picking up four points against Brentford and title-chasing Arsenal.
Finally, Leeds would need to beat either Burnley or Brighton, lose to Tottenham and draw with the Hammers both to ensure their safety and leave Newcastle inside the bottom three at the end of the campaign.
Under these circumstances, the final Premier League table would see Newcastle relegated on 43 points on goal difference, provided Tottenham clawed back the six-goal deficit currently separating the two sides.
Spurs would finish 17th with West Ham 16th and Leeds 15th, both on 44 points, while Nottingham Forest would climb to 14th on 45 points from this specific outcome.
While it is still a possibility, the likelihood of all these scenarios playing out is slim.
Running the numbers through a supercomputer, the football data expert found that it took 2,650 simulations before Newcastle were relegated and admitted his surprise at it being such an outside chance.
‘I’ve got a feeling it might be a bit more likely than that,’ he said at the end of the video.
Tottenham and West Ham remain the clear favourites to go down – but both could still survive
According to OPTA’s supercomputer, Newcastle only have a 0.7 per cent chance of suffering relegation.
Meanwhile, Leeds and Nottingham Forest’s chances of relegation sit at approximately one and two per cent respectively.
The odds climb dramatically with West Ham, whose chance of relegation according to OPTA is 37.94 per cent, and Tottenham are viewed the most likely to go down at 58.99 per cent.
