Pakistan’s defence minister said military action from India was “imminent”, days after a deadly terror attack on tourists in Kashmir heightened fears of a wider conflict.
Already strained ties between India and Pakistan deteriorated dramatically when 25 tourists and a local guide were shot dead by militants on 22 April in the tourist hotspot of Pahalgam in the federal territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
New Delhi directed its anger towards Pakistan and accused its neighbour of fuelling violent separatist insurgency in the scenic Himalayan region. Both India and Pakistan administer Kashmir in part and claim the region as a whole. Islamabad has denied any involvement in the Pahalgam attack.
Yet while India has vowed a “strong response” and its prime minister Narendra Modi has said the attackers will be hunted “to the ends of the Earth”, experts say the prospect of an all-out war between the two nuclear-armed South Asian rivals remains unlikely.
Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s defence minister, said the country was working on the assumption that India would attack in some form, and that it could happen as soon as in the next two or three days.
Pakistan’s defence forces are ready and the military has briefed the government on the possibility of the attack, he told Reuters from his office in Islamabad.
“We have reinforced our forces because it is something which is imminent now. So in that situation, some strategic decisions have to be taken, so those decisions have been taken,” Mr Asif said.
On the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons in response to the attack, Mr Asif said Islamabad was on high alert but would only use such weaponry if “there is a direct threat to our existence”.
In a separate interview with Pakistani media outlet Geo News, Mr Asif said the next few days were crucial. “If something has to happen, it will happen in two or three days,” Mr Asif told the news channel. “There is an immediate threat.” He said allies such as China, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states are trying to prevent conflict from breaking out.
In the days after what was the first deadly attack on tourists in decades in Kashmir, the relative quiet on the disputed border between India and Pakistan has been shattered, as troops repeatedly exchanged fire along the Line of Control (LoC), the 740km frontier separating the Indian and Pakistani-administered parts of Kashmir.
Indian police have identified three of the four gunmen who carried out the attack, naming two Pakistani nationals and a Kashmiri man, and accused Islamabad of harbouring and supporting terror groups operating in the region.
Pakistan has rejected the allegations and called for an independent investigation.
Ajay Bisaria, former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan from 2017 to 2020, told The Independent an Indian military response was to be expected, at a time and place of New Delhi’s choosing.
He suggested India may carry out a limited, targeted military operation, such as an airstrike or temporary incursion, to send a message without escalating into a broader conflict.
“A kinetic action – a repeat of 2016 and 2019 strikes – is expected along with a mix of policy responses from India. The policy response would involve diplomatic and bilateral moves,” Mr Bisaria said. In 2016, teams of Indian commandos crossed the LoC to carry out attacks up to a kilometre into Pakistan-administered Kashmir, while in 2019 the Indian air force carried out airstrikes on targets across the border.
“We can expect Pakistan to retaliate in some former way if India takes any kinetic measures. But we can also expect both sides to find a quick way to de-escalate the situation as soon as it escalates,” he added.
The former diplomat said India’s action would require an element of surprise and secrecy as and when it happens, meaning it was unlikely to precisely mirror recent strikes.
Harsh V Pant, a strategic affairs expert at the Observer Research Foundation think tank, was sceptical of the Pakistani defence minister’s warning of an imminent Indian military action, saying such remarks “shouldn’t be taken at face value”.
“Asif has every incentive to escalate tensions rhetorically to draw international attention,” Mr Pant told The Independent, adding that Pakistan is trying to portray itself as a victim to trigger a global intervention before any actual Indian response.
He added: “If India were indeed planning any military operation, it would not be publicly telegraphed.
“If Pakistan is declaring an attack is coming, then India’s element of surprise is already lost. Indian action would likely prioritise strategic surprise, and if such planning is underway, India would keep it tightly under wraps.”
Indian prime minister Narendra Modi, in his first public statement following the terror attack, declared that India would “identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backers. We will pursue them to the ends of the Earth”.
He said that the “terrorists behind the killings, along with their backers, will get a punishment bigger than they can imagine”.
“Our enemies have dared to attack the country’s soul … India’s spirit will never be broken by terrorism.”
His comments were rare because they were made in English in Hindi-speaking Bihar state – a calculated move that the former high commissioner to Pakistan said was to send a message to the world that New Delhi would avenge the deaths.
