The UK faces a future of month-long heatwaves and temperatures hitting more than 45C as a result of climate change, new analysis from the Met Office shows.
With temperatures set to climb to 33C this weekend, a new study shows Britain could be in store for “much more severe” heatwaves over the coming years.
Experts say there is a 50 per cent chance of seeing temperatures soar to 40C again in the next 12 years, with higher temperatures of 45C “possible” in today’s climate. They also said a figure of 46.6C is “plausible” in that timeframe.
Alongside the incredible heat, the weather phenomenon could also last for a month at a time, with forecasters warning that 12 consecutive days above 35C are also possible.
The record for the hottest temperature in the UK is 40.3C, recorded in Coningsby, Lincolnshire, in summer 2022.
The Met Office reached the findings by using global models to create a large number of climate outcomes in current conditions.
Their study, published in Weather Journal, shows the chance of temperatures hitting 40C is more than 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s, and has almost trebled since the year 2000.
Dr Gillian Kay, senior scientist at the office and lead author of the study, said: “The chance of exceeding 40C has been rapidly increasing, and it is now over 20 times more likely than it was in the 1960s.
“Because our climate continues to warm, we can expect the chance to keep rising.
“We estimate a 50:50 chance of seeing a 40C day again in the next 12 years.
“We also found that temperatures several degrees higher than we saw in July 2022 are possible in today’s climate.”
Looking at heatwaves, the Met Office study found that “much more severe” extremes could occur in the current climate.
Their climate model shows that up to two-thirds of summer days could be above the heatwave threshold of 28C in south-east England, with more than a month in continuous heatwave. Up to 12 consecutive days above 35C is also possible, the study says.
The ongoing ‘mini-heatwave’ in the UK could reach highs of 32C this week as parts of the country grapple with drought and heat-related health issues. The heatwave of 2022 contributed to the deaths of 3,000 people, it was found, most over 65.
Met Office experts said the findings showed the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures and extreme heat.
Dr Nick Dunstone, Met Office science fellow and co-author of the study, said: “The well-known hot summer of 1976 had more than a fortnight above 28°C, which is a key heatwave threshold in south-east England.
“Our study finds that in today’s climate such conditions could persist for a month or more.
“These findings highlight the need to prepare and plan for the impacts of rising temperatures now, so we can better protect public health, infrastructure, and the environment from the growing threat of extreme heat.”
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