The proportion of first-time buyers in England and Northern Ireland who will need to pay stamp duty will double from April, according to analysis by a property website.
Currently, 21 per cent of first-time buyers pay the tax, but Zoopla estimates this will surge to 42 per cent after the upcoming changes. Existing homeowners aren’t immune either, with the proportion liable for stamp duty predicted to jump from 49 per cent to a staggering 83 per cent.
These shifts are driven by reductions in stamp duty discounts.
The “nil rate” band, the threshold below which no stamp duty is paid, will shrink from £425,000 to £300,000 for first-time buyers.
Other homebuyers will see an even steeper drop, from £250,000 to just £125,000. These changes mean a significantly larger portion of buyers will find themselves paying stamp duty, adding to the cost of moving home.
Overall Zoopla estimates that the stamp duty changes could add an extra £1.1 billion annually in the tax to government coffers.
The website’s analysis was based on buyer inquiries to estate agents and property prices and excludes the impact of those buying additional homes.
Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla said: “Stamp duty has become a big source of tax revenue, approaching £10 billion a year for the Government. The reduction in tax reliefs from April will see more home buyers paying stamp duty.”
He added: “It’s positive that most first-time buyers will still pay no stamp duty from April, but these changes hit those buying over £300,000 in southern England the most, where buying costs are already high. This will reduce buying power and market activity at a local level.
“Stamp duty is a big tax on home movers in southern England, where affordability problems are already a major challenge. The case for reforming stamp duty remains, but the question is where to replace the multi-billion in annual tax revenues.”
Simon Gerrard, chair of Martyn Gerrard estate agents, said: “These upcoming stamp duty changes will disproportionately affect first-time buyers in London, where housing is much more expensive, with 97 per cent of sales set to pay stamp duty from April.
“In other areas, the impacts will be less pronounced. On the ground, we saw a big uptick in interest from first-time buyers in the last few months as they sought to get ahead of the changes, which will add thousands to the cost of buying a home.
“Some of the negative impacts may be offset by the Bank of England lowering interest rates, which will make mortgages more affordable, but it could also see house prices increase even further.
“The route onto the property ladder still contains so many barriers and the upcoming stamp duty threshold reductions will only aggravate an already dire situation.”
He suggested that existing stamp duty relief should be kept in place for first-time buyers, “or better still abolish it for first-time buyers”.
According to figures from Rightmove, the average asking price for a home has increased by 22 per cent since November 2017, when the £300,000 first-time buyer relief threshold was introduced. The typical price tag has increased from £302,630 in November 2017 to £367,994.
Rightmove said there are 28 per cent more first-time buyers in London currently going through the sales completion process than at this time last year.
Here are the percentages of transactions where existing homeowners buying a property as their main residence are liable to pay stamp duty now, followed by the estimates from April, according to Zoopla:
- North East, 7 per cent, 40 per cent
- Yorkshire and the Humber, 8 per cent, 56 per cent
- Northern Ireland, 10 per cent, 59 per cent
- North West, 16 per cent, 83 per cent
- West Midlands, 20 per cent, 61 per cent
- East Midlands, 29 per cent, 84 per cent
- South West, 49 per cent, 90 per cent
- Eastern England, 73 per cent, 95 per cent
- South East, 75 per cent, 95 per cent
- London, 89 per cent, 97 per cent
And here are the percentages of first-time buyer transactions which are liable to pay stamp duty now, followed by the estimates from April, according to Zoopla:
- North East, 0.4 per cent, 2 per cent
- Yorkshire and the Humber, 1 per cent, 3 per cent
- Northern Ireland, 1 per cent, 5 per cent
- North West, 1 per cent, 5 per cent
- West Midlands, 1 per cent, 7 per cent
- East Midlands, 1 per cent, 9 per cent
- South West, 3 per cent, 20 per cent
- Eastern England, 16 per cent, 50 per cent
- South East, 17 per cent, 51 per cent
- London, 49 per cent, 79 per cent