If winning the FA Cup could ease Manchester United’s plight, they may reflect that it helped get them into this mess. FA Cup glory at Wembley famously transformed one United manager’s reign; in a different way, it altered that of another, and it has more an immediate impact now.
For Sir Alex Ferguson, a first trophy in 1990 was the start of a path that led to 13 league titles, two Champions Leagues and a status as the most successful manager in the history of English football. For Erik ten Hag in 2024, it brought a reprieve. A man who many expected to be sacked was instead awarded a new contract.
And then sacked four months after that. If United’s next fortnight goes badly, their season will officially be a write-off; it will rank as a disaster, perhaps their worst campaign since relegation in 1974. For Ruben Amorim, parachuted in when Ten Hag was dismissed, the mitigating factors include the timing of his arrival. The Portuguese would have been in a better position to succeed if he had taken over in a summer.
Now Fulham and Real Sociedad separate his first few months at Old Trafford from the bracket of failure. Opta’s supercomputer gives United just a 5.1 per cent chance of finishing in the top 10 of the Premier League – compared to a 61.1 per cent probability they will end up 14th, 15th or 16th – so the FA Cup is United’s only route back into the Europa League; the Europa League, in turn, is their only corridor into the Champions League. When United fired Ten Hag in September, they believed they could still return to the European elite via a top-four finish. Like much else at Old Trafford, it looks horribly deluded.
So it is five days to shape a season; perhaps to save one. Fulham and Real Sociedad could finish United off. In other years, were United the force of old, the teams ninth in England and Spain respectively would hold few alarms. A Socieded side weakened by the sales of Mikel Merino and Robin Le Normand look less intimidating than they were last season. Fulham have an awful record against United and have lost to them twice already this campaign.
And yet nothing can be taken for granted. It was notable that, rather than talking of triumphing at Wembley, Amorim set himself a smaller objective. “We want to go to the next stage, to have two wins at home, especially at home, we need that feeling.” They have not won two successive home matches at Old Trafford since Amorim’s first pair, against Bodo/Glimt and Everton.
United’s size, history and expenditure means there is an expectation they could win either competition. Their results and the reality of the club now suggest they will need a transformation in their fortunes to rescue this sorriest of seasons. Even those two wins over Fulham were both arguably fortunate, requiring late goals – Joshua Zirkzee at Old Trafford for Ten Hag, Lisandro Martinez at Craven Cottage for Amorim – and meaning Marco Silva could feel it would be an injustice to lose to this United three times in a year.
Amorim has knocked out Premier League opponents in both rounds – eliminating Arsenal, albeit on penalties, is, along with a Manchester derby win, the best result of his reign – but, with Fulham next, it suggests United might need to beat six top-flight sides to win the FA Cup. Nor is Old Trafford necessarily an advantage: Amorim’s only wins there against English opponents came against Sean Dyche’s Everton plus three clubs who were in the Championship last season and now occupy the relegation zone.
He at least boasts a 100 per cent record in Europe; indeed, count the spot-kick success at Arsenal as a victory and he has won six of seven games in the various knockout competitions, compared to just five of 16 in the league. United finished third in the Europa League’s group stage. They are the competition’s only unbeaten side this season.
But with Sociedad representing a difficult draw, Opta only give them a 7.3 percent chance of securing the silverware; the supercomputer makes the biggest club in the competition the fifth favourites. Sixth are Lyon, potential quarter-final opponents. Reach the semi-final and they could face Roma, the fourth most fancied side, or Athletic Bilbao, the second and a team with an added incentive as they will host the final. The other half of the draw contains, among others, Tottenham, who have beaten United three times this season, Eintracht Frankfurt, currently third in the Bundesliga, the Eredivisie leaders Ajax and Lazio, the Europa League favourites.
An FA Cup already without Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, plus Brentford, Everton and West Ham, may seem to offer more opportunity. But in each competition, United would need to beat four sides – this United, lacking confidence and cohesion, short of goals in the first half or from strikers, without the injured Martinez and Amad Diallo, struggling to get to grips to Amorim’s system, featuring players who are out of position or out of form.
It is not impossible, as Ten Hag’s against-the-odds triumph over Manchester City at Wembley last year indicated. United have won the FA Cup when finishing in the bottom half of the table under both Ferguson and Sir Matt Busby. Now the task for Amorim is to emulate the managerial knights.
