Sir Keir Starmer could be facing an embarrassing blow in this week’s local elections after data seen by The Independent suggests that the city where John Prescott was MP for 40 years has turned its back on Labour.
According to canvass returns – voting data collected by parties –- Nigel Farage’s Reform UK are heading the race for mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, with the Lib Dems a close second and Labour now a distant third.
The region, which is electing a mayor for the first time, has historically been a Labour heartland and part of its famous red wall, with Lord Prescott as an MP for four decades and former home secretary Alan Johnson also an MP for the city.
Currently, Home Office minister Diana Johnson is one of the local Labour MPs but voters for now seem to have switched off Labour.
Canvass returns from the Lib Dems taken from around 20,000 people in April put Reform’s Luke Campbell, a former Olympic gold medal-winning boxer, on 30 per cent, while the Lib Dem’s Mike Ross, leader of Hull City Council, is close behind on 27 per cent.
Labour’s Margaret Pinder is a long way back on 19 per cent, just ahead of Tory Anne Handley on 17 per cent.
Canvass returns are mostly collected through questioning people on the doorsteps but also through online surveys. They tend to be much more accurate than polling and are quite sophisticated in terms of method.
Even though the Liberal Democrats won overall control of Hull City Council in the 2022 local elections to end years of Labour rule, the result was seen as an anomaly with Sir Keir’s party at a low point. The mayoral contest had been expected to be a tight battle between Labour and Reform.
Issues such as welfare cuts, a lack of economic growth and removing winter fuel payments from pensioners have hurt Labour’s popularity in the polls and seen voters switch to Reform.
The Lib Dems, who had not previously seen Hull and East Yorkshire as a potential win, are now putting out leaflets and letters to voters in the region calling on Labour supporters to vote tactically for them to defeat Reform.
Reform has been heavily campaigning in the area, believing it is one of three mayoralties the party is set to win along with greater Lincolnshire with Andrea Jenkyns and Doncaster.
Previously, Lib Dem breakthroughs have mostly been confined to strong Tory areas with many of the 72 seats they won in last year’s general election coming off the Conservatives. Victory in a red wall Labour area would be a significant breakthrough for the Lib Dems.
