Labour claims it has broken the link between favourable weather conditions and an influx of migrant crossings, as the government embarks on its mission to crack down on illegal migration to the UK.
People smugglers are showing signs of being put off crossing on “red days” — when low wind and waves make crossing easier — Labour analysis of small boat crossings indicates.
It comes despite there having been a higher number of days with calmer conditions in the six months since the party took power than over the same period in 2022 and last year.
The average number of arrivals per “red day” was 262.8 for July to 23 December 2024, compared with 360.8 in the final six months of last year, 383.8 in 2022 and 286.2 in 2021.
Labour Party insiders claimed the figures show it has broken the link between better weather and bigger migrant crossings, adding the government’s strategy is “designed to ensure that the UK’s border security is no longer at the mercy of either the weather conditions or the smuggling gangs, as it has been since the crossings began in 2018”.
They said: “In 2023, the previous government celebrated a quiet end to the year in terms of arrivals that was entirely because of the record low number of ‘red days’.
“This year, despite a final quarter with the highest number of ‘red days’ on record, we are seeing signs – in comparison with previous years – that the disruption of the smuggling gangs is beginning to have an impact.”
Labour pointed out that the first six months of this year, under the Conservative Party, saw a record number of small boat arrivals despite the number of good weather “red days” being lower than any previous year of crossings.
That meant the ratio of arrivals to red days in the first half of the year was also the highest on record. In the second half of 2024, by contrast, the number of “red days” is set to be the highest recorded in recent history – but the ratio of small boat arrivals to red days is set to be the lowest, the party said.
It comes as more than 450 people made the dangerous crossing of the English Channel in small boats on Christmas Day, according to Home Office figures.
Data updated on Thursday indicated that 451 migrants arrived on 25 December on 11 boats.
The last time vessels carrying migrants were known to have arrived was on 14 December, when 160 people arrived in three boats.
The figures take the total number of crossings in 2024 to 35,491, around 21 per cent higher than last year, but about 22 per cent down on 2022.
The Labour Party has promised to “smash the gangs” and prevent illegal migration by clamping down on the individuals that smuggle refugees across the channel.
However, the party has been accused of continuing the previous Tory government’s so-called “hostile environment” approach to migration after the Home Office hailed a new crackdown on immigration crime this month.
In December, the government announced nearly 13,500 migrants had been removed from Britain since the election, as well as pledging to put £8m towards technology for immigration enforcement operations such as raids and arrests.
It comes after Labour previously pledged to return more people who do not have a right to stay in the country halfway through its first year in office than any other six-month period since 2018.
While the government said the figures show it is on track to deliver on its returns pledge, which would need to be met by early January, campaigners have hit out at the approach, comparing it to that of the previous Conservative government.
Julia Tinsley-Kent, head of policy and communications at the Migrants’ Rights Network told The Independent: “They fail to understand that people are forced into making dangerous crossings because safe routes do not exist.
“Punishing migrants without permission to work or reside fails to address the fundamental failures within the immigration system that continuously pushes migrants into exploitative conditions because they can become undocumented so easily.”
