Sir Keir Starmer is expected to face a wave of ministerial resignations after the Makerfield by-election result next week, with Andy Burnham now the favourite to win the seat and launch a leadership challenge.
The Greater Manchester mayor is understood to already be organising his Downing Street operation and sounding out candidates to join his top team, including cabinet roles, in the expectation he will become leader and prime minister after returning to parliament.
The Independent understands that internal polling and data gathering by the Labour campaign team in the northwest constituency suggests Mr Burnham “will win easily and actually embarrass Reform UK”, putting him in a strong position to challenge the prime minister immediately on his return to the Commons.
It is understood that a series of government ministers are expected to resign in the wake of next Thursday’s by-election result – much like Boris Johnson experienced in the final days of his premiership, which eventually forced him to step down.
Sir Keir has insisted he intends to fight any leadership contest, but a slew of resignations would make this considerably more difficult and would likely force him to consider his position.
It follows the dramatic resignations of defence secretary John Healey and armed forces minister Al Carns in a row over military spending on Thursday.
Mr Healey’s resignation – which made him the fourth cabinet minister to leave Sir Keir’s government since Labour came to power – served as yet another blow to the PM’s fragile authority, with the former defence secretary accusing him of being “unwilling to commit the resources” needed to keep Britain safe.
One Labour source said: “Ministers quitting is how the Tories got rid of Boris, it should work for us too.”
Another source noted: “The data shows the biggest reason people are voting for Andy is to get rid of Starmer.”
Details of Mr Burnham’s preparations for No 10 include looking at an overhaul of communications in Downing Street, which has been identified as one of Sir Keir’s greatest weaknesses.
“It needs a complete rethink. They need to clean house but they also need to work out how to do things differently than before”, one source said.
He is also starting to set out cabinet roles, with Louise Haigh and deputy leader Lucy Powell among those expected to be included.
It is understood that deputy prime minister David Lammy and chief whip Jonathan Reynolds are on a list of ministers likely to be sacked by Mr Burnham, who pointedly promised to end the suspension of rebel MP Karl Turner, a vocal critic of Mr Lammy’s reforms to jury trials.
Meanwhile, Mr Reynolds is seen by Burnham allies as being pivotal in attempts to block his return to parliament, particularly over the Gorton and Denton by-election, where he was prevented from standing.
However, other ministers and ambitious MPs are being given encouragement behind the scenes by Ms Powell who is said to be “acting as an agony aunt”. Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner is also trying to “settle nerves” over a Burnham leadership.
The Independent revealed on Thursday night that foreign secretary Yvette Cooper, who along with home secretary Shabana Mahmood has told the PM he must go, is now on resignation watch.
But now many more at different levels of the government are looking to go.
However, it is clear nobody is expected to resign before the Makerfield result is declared in the early hours of Friday morning.
Liverpool Riverside MP Kim Johnson, a supporter of Mr Burnham, said: “Not looking good for Starmer, everyone waiting until next week, he needs to just stand down.”
Another Labour MP said: “There will be nothing until Thursday, but then maybe more pressure on the PM to do a timetable to go.”
A third said: “It’s the end of days for Starmer. We are just counting them down.”
But one ally of Mr Burnham’s was unimpressed with the plans for resignations to force Starmer to quit.
The MP said: “Those that haven’t jumped will probably fancy keeping their pay and perks til the autumn. They have no other honour, so why would they? It is possible a few would go after the result like rats from a sinking ship to curry favour with Burnham.”
John McTernan, a former adviser to Tony Blair, told Sky News that Mr Healey’s resignation “shows how little authority Keir Starmer has left”.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are set to table a humble address in parliament to maximise the government’s embarrassment by trying to force the publication of communications over the much-delayed Defence Improvement Plan (Dip) which led to Mr Healey and Mr Carns quitting.
Former security minister Dan Jarvis made his first appearance as defence secretary in Swindon but did not take media questions and gave a speech behind closed doors.
