Fears are growing that Donald Trump may be preparing for military action in Cuba once his war in Iran comes to an end, as Havana’s top officials blasted US threats as an “international crime” on Wednesday.
For months, the US president has been clear in his intentions with the Caribbean island. “I do believe I’ll have the honour of taking Cuba,” he told reporters in March. “That would be good… I think I can do anything I want with it.”
Last Friday, after imposing a fresh round of sanctions on the Havana government, Trump went on to say the US would be taking over Cuba “almost immediately”.
Havana has responded forcefully to the threats from Washington, accusing it of “economic warfare” and saying suggestions that Washington could “liberate” Cuba were cynical and hypocritical.
Fresh sanctions on the Cuban regime were announced on 1 May by the White House, who said they would target entities and individuals that are complicit with alleged corruption and rights violations by the Cuban government and its security apparatus.
On Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to discuss Cuba with Pope Leo following a breakdown in relations between the Vatican and the White House.
What have US and Cuban officials said?
The US and Cuba have had strained relations for decades, stemming from the island’s communist revolution and the disastrous Washington-backed Bay of Pigs invasion in 1961.
In its latest broadside against Cuba, US secretary of state Marco Rubio lashed out at the government, describing the country as a “failed state” run by “incompetent communists”.
Speaking in early March after launching the US-Israeli war on Iran, Trump told Fox News: “Cuba’s next. They’re going to follow this communist dictatorship in Cuba. Their days are numbered.”
In announcing the new sanctions last week, the White House said the Cuban regime “aligns itself with countries and malign actors hostile to the United States, going so far as to facilitate their military and intelligence operations”.
It accused the country of hosting “foreign adversary facilities focused on targeting and exploiting sensitive national security information from the United States”.
Cuban foreign minister Bruno Rodriguez condemned the sanctions.
“Contemptible yet curious and ridiculous. The US government is alarmed and responds with new illegal and abusive unilateral coercive measures against Cuba,” he wrote.
“The cynical and hypocritical thing about it is that the US has, for decades, tried to devastate the country by imposing an economic warfare,” he added in a later post. “The threat of a military attack and the aggression itself are international crimes.”
What has been the impact of US action so far?
It is not clear exactly what a US military operation in Cuba would look like – and no plans have been briefed to the media despite Trump’s threats.
It could be a “friendly takeover”, a “not so friendly takeover” or a “forced restructuring of the Cuban state”, foreign policy expert Dr Izabela Pereira Watts wrote in an analysis for the Lowy Institute thinktank.
But Washington has already “severed the island’s jugular” by choking Havana’s access to imported fuel, after taking over Venezuela’s oil assets during its operation against the Maduro regime, she said.
The move has had a damaging impact on Cuba’s internal logistics, Dr Watts says. Flights have been cancelled, schools suspended and hospitals are struggling to provide basic emergency care.
And Washington is only set to further intensify economic pressure. Announcing the new round of sanctions, the White House declared it will “hold the Cuban regime, and those that perpetuate it, accountable for its support of hostile actors, terrorism, and regional instability”.
What could a US attack look like?
What the precise aims of US action on Cuba would be is unclear, but experts have suggested that Trump will seek regime change.
Deposing the country’s leadership would be a repeat of the US operation in Venezuela in January, when special forces arrested former president Nicolas Maduro in a stunning raid.
But the Caracas government remains in place with Maduro’s allies still at the helm, with his former vice president Delcy Rodriguez currently installed as leader.
In Iran, despite suggestions from the Trump administration that regime change could be possible, America’s goals have been more focused on destroying the country’s nuclear programme and military infrastructure.
Dr Watts believes the US is more likely to pursue economic action ahead of a military operation in Cuba.
“By pushing the Cuban economy to the brink of a humanitarian abyss, Washington believes it can force the Communist Party of Cuba to accept a market-oriented transition in exchange for political survival,” she says.
But Cuba’s government will not take a risk, especially given Trump’s record in recent months, with Mr Diaz-Canel warning Havana is “preparing in case we have to move to a state of war”.
