In the early hours of Tuesday morning, families in Gaza were shaken awake by the return of ferocious bombardment from the air and land. The tense calm of a fragile ceasefire – brokered by the US, Qatar, and Egypt and in place since January – had been shattered.
Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered the renewed offensive, vowing that Israel will “from now on act against Hamas with increasing military strength”, blaming Hamas for its “repeated refusal to release our hostages, as well as its rejection of all of the proposals”.
It comes just two weeks after he ordered Israel to cut off all food, medicine, fuel, electricity, and other supplies to Gaza’s two million people to try and put pressure on Hamas to accept a new deal.
Mr Netanyahu has seemingly refused to bow to pressure from the families of the hostages to continue the truce and bring their loved ones home.
On Tuesday morning the largest faction representing hostages’ families said their “greatest fear has come true – the Israeli government has chosen to abandon the hostages”.
They warned that “resuming fighting will cost more hostages their lives. We must stop the fighting and immediately return to the negotiation table”.
Hamas militant group, meanwhile, accused Netanyahu of upending the ceasefire agreement and in a veiled threat, said the fighting exposed the remaining hostages “to an unknown fate”.
So what happened?
The ceasefire was supposed to consist of three phases, the first of which expired two weeks ago and saw Hamas hand over 25 living hostages and the remains of eight others in exchange for the release of nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners.
Phase two, which is yet to be fully negotiated, was supposed to pave the way to a long-term ceasefire, a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, and the return of all hostages taken by Hamas in its bloody October 7 attack on Israel that started the war in 2023.
However, ending the war and withdrawing from the besieged strip has been fiercely rejected by the extreme-right flank of Israeli government, including Itamar Ben-Gvir, minister of national security, who resigned in protest when the initial Gaza ceasefire began in January.
In fact hardline cabinet members have, at several points, threatened to bring down Mr Netanyahu’s fragile coalition if he does not return to the fighting.
One concern in Israel is that Mr Netanyahu is more preoccupied with satisfying his far-right partners ahead of a budget vote next week and saving his political skin while he is on trial, than bringing his citizens home and building peace.
Israeli media reported on Tuesday morning that Ben-Gvir was poised to return to the heart of government, possibly within days.
As Amir Tibon, a correspondent for left-leaning newspaper Haaretz, put it on X: “Netanyahu had a choice” return the hostages to their families or “return Ben-Gvir to the government to pass a budget. And he chose Ben-Gvir.”
Mr Netanyahu was also due to appear in court on Tuesday to testify in his ongoing corruption trials, which have cast a long shadow over the embattled premier’s terms of office and future.
The Israeli leader has vehemently denied the charges and portrayed the legal proceedings as a political witch hunt.
He has frequently, and unsuccessfully, requested that his hearings be cancelled so he can focus on the war in Gaza. His wish was apparently temporarily granted on Tuesday – the latest session has been postponed due to the renewed hostilities.
Another theory in Israel is that the decision to return to war in Gaza is related to fierce criticism Mr Netanyahu has faced over his decision last week to oust his domestic intelligence chief, Ronen Bar.
Israeli media has reported that he fired Bar to thwart planned investigations into how Hamas’s bloody 7 October happened and into Israeli connections funding streams to the militant group.
All of this has provided a fraught backdrop to already messy and muddy negotiations for a truce in recent days, with all sides – Hamas, Israel, or Donald Trump’s top negotiator Steve Witkoff – putting forward unsuccessful proposals.
Mr Netanyahu has made it clear that he does not want to move to phase two and instead suggested an extension of phase one which would require Hamas to release half of its remaining hostages – the militant group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.
However, Israel has made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners, a key component of the first phase.
Hamas is adamant phase two must begin but suggested their own temporary proposal, which involved releasing a living American-Israeli hostage and the bodies of four dual nationals who had died in captivity – but this was also rejected with Mr Netanyahu calling it “manipulation”.
Mr Witkoff, a long-time friend of Trump who got the January deal over the line, has reportedly spent multiple hours with Qatari negotiators in Doha in the last week and may have even okayed the first direct talks between US and Hamas officials. He put forward a slightly different “bridge proposal” that apparently that has also not been embraced.
Israel’s renewed offensive has already killed hundreds of civilians in Gaza, with medics telling me that the strip’s destroyed healthcare system, crippled by aid blockade, cannot cope with the influx of wounded.
In Israel families of hostages fear their loved ones have simply been forgotten and will also perish in the bombardment.
A complete return to war in Gaza could once again trigger regional conflict, dragging the Houthis in Yemen, and the Iranians into the mix – especially after Trump ordered strikes on the Yemeni capital and Red Sea region this week.
Peace in the region is at stake.
