Hours after Morgan Rogers’ spectacular strike had kept Aston Villa firmly in the title race, we had the unusual sight of a Premier League club calling out the statisticians.
Throughout Villa’s stunning run of 10 wins in 11 Premier League games, those who study the numbers have insisted their success cannot last.
They’ve referred to the number of goals scored from outside the penalty area – 10 from just 42 shots at the last reckoning – and their relatively low expected goals (xG) numbers.
When the respected @xGPhilosophy account posted on X that Rogers’ winner in the 3-2 victory at West Ham last Sunday was worth only 0.02 xG – that is, the chance would be missed 98 times out of 100 – it seemed the ‘admin’ running the Villa official feed had had enough.
At 10pm on Sunday, @AVFCOfficial reposted the clip of Rogers’ goal with the comment ‘0.02 xG 😉’. The non-too-subtle dig was viewed 1.2million times.
Daily Mail Sport spoke to those behind the @xGPhilosophy account (who asked not to be named). It is fair to say much of the Villa community on social media has taken their observations personally.
Morgan Rogers scored twice for Aston Villa at West Ham last weekend but the team’s expected goals numbers are relatively low
Rogers scores a brilliant winner at the London Stadium – it was worth only 0.02 xG, which means the chance would be missed 98 times out of 100
One recent post suggesting that Villa deserved to be only 15th in the Premier League, a handful of points above woeful Wolves, particularly wound up fans.
‘After we sent that post, a Villa fan quoted it with the reply “Aston Villa are 3rd, based on their points won and performances”,’ a member of the @xGPhilosophy team tells Daily Mail Sport. ‘It was a valid point, which was viewed 2.5million times. We thought we’d have some fun and replied “Bookmarked” – and that’s what started it.
‘With Villa at the moment, there’s not an obvious reason why they are outperforming xG. When this happens, it is often because a forward is on a hot streak.
‘It happened in the past when Tottenham had Harry Kane and Son Heung-min, elite finishers who regularly outperformed xG. But this season Ollie Watkins is the opposite. He’s underperforming his xG significantly. Instead with Villa, you have players like Rogers, Matty Cash and Emi Buendia chipping in with goals from distance.
‘But you look at their results as well as their xG, and they’ve won their last seven in all competitions by a single goal. That’s unusual in a sport as random as football and we’d expect it to settle into a more normal pattern, especially as they have difficult fixtures coming up.’
The xG frustration is not confined to online Villa fans. The narrative has irked the club, too, and a glance at the statistics here is revealing. According to Opta, since Unai Emery took charge of Villa in November 2022, Villa’s total of 199 Premier League goals exceeds their xG by 25. They have conceded 155, 13 fewer than they ‘should’ have done according to the xG metric.
When we come to the expected points table (a statistic generated using xG), Villa have achieved 44 more points than they ‘should’ have during Emery’s time in the Premier League. Emery has overseen 117 league games at Villa Park, taking the team into the Champions League and finishing seventh, fourth and sixth.
This is where the models feel unsatisfactory. Any team can have the rub of the green for a few weeks or even a couple of months, such as Villa in their recent sequence. But a run of good luck spanning more than three years? That seems highly unlikely.
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Full back Matty Cash has chipped in with goals from distance for Aston Villa
As has midfielder Emi Buendia, who has had a new lease of life this season
Expected goals models judge the quality of a chance. Taking Rogers’ 25-yard strike at West Ham as an example, the models decide that the ‘average’ top-flight player would score from that position only once every 50 times, hence the xG rating of 0.02.
Yet there are important caveats here. Daily Mail Sport can reveal Rogers has been doing specific shooting drills before and after sessions at Bodymoor Heath for some time and can now execute a ‘knuckle-ball’ shot that deceives goalkeepers in flight.
An ‘average’ player cannot deliver this skill regularly, even in the Premier League. Nor do most show Rogers’ dedication. So if Rogers is better than most peers from this range, that is not due to luck.
Villa believe the hyper-focus on their xG performance disregards the work of Emery and his players. Because just as Rogers is not an ‘average’ player, Emery is no ‘average’ coach.
While Emery is presented with xG and related statistics and considers them accordingly, they are not decisive elements of his analysis. The manager produces a bespoke plan for every game, tailoring Villa’s tactics to counter the opposition.
The level of detail in this preparation is mind-boggling and when Emery talks about Villa ‘feeling comfortable in our structure’, he means ensuring every player understands what is needed, to the smallest factor.
Marching across the grass with clipboard in hand, Emery will physically move players a few centimetres this way or that until they are exactly where he needs them. The afternoon video meetings can stretch well past an hour.
Individual meetings, again in front of the laptop, tell a player precisely what is required, perhaps the specific runs he should make when a team-mate has the ball, or the angle at which he should position himself when facing a particular opponent.
Villa have achieved 44 more points than they ‘should’ have done during Unai Emery’s time in charge of the club
This season Ollie Watkins is underperforming his xG significantly but it is not holding Villa back
If the England cricket team’s ‘Bazball’ strategy advocates a single approach regardless of opposition, match situation or conditions, then Emery is at the opposite end of that spectrum.
Gambling expert Alan Alger also believes Emery has found a way to counteract the xG patterns. ‘I don’t think Villa will fall away, even though every xG expert seems to think they will,’ he says. ‘Emery has found a way to mitigate it through the way he asks his team to defend.
‘He seems happy for Villa to concede several low-quality chances per game. That means an opponent can rack up quite a high xG number, even if they haven’t created many good opportunities.
‘Two years ago, West Ham won 2-0 at Arsenal. Some Arsenal fans argued online that they had been unlucky because their xG was 2.79. But look a little deeper and every chance was of about 0.05 xG – in other words, lots of low-quality chances.
‘Emery is such a clued-up manager. Look at those four Europa League victories. He works things out by paying so much attention to detail.’
And anyway, Alger argues, xG is no longer the be-all and end-all. When it emerged in the gambling world two decades ago, the metric was revolutionary.
Now, there are other markers that bettors look for. On top of that, Daily Mail Sport understands that while most Premier League clubs pay attention to xG, it is rarely top of the list during analysis meetings. As for players, many acknowledge the statistic only when it is presented to them by club staff and will not go looking for it themselves.
‘Professional gamblers made fortunes for years through xG,’ Alger explains. ‘But now they’ve adapted their model to such a degree that xG is probably only about the fifth thing they consider.
Villa are on a run of 10 wins in 11 Premier League games thanks in part to Youri Tielemans and John McGinn (right)
Boubacar Kamara (left), Rogers (centre) and Donyell Malen celebrate Villa’s victory at the London Stadium
‘They look at attacking entries into the penalty area or overlapping players finding positions to produce assists. They focus on individual players and combinations, too: for example, they may learn that a certain attacking three will produce an average of 2.5 xG per game. It’s far more detailed now.’
It is inconceivable that Emery will not be aware of this. If he were your colleague, he would be the guy who would arrive at his desk first, leave last and once home, make an early start on the next report. While perfectly friendly and polite, ‘Boss’ – as Emery is addressed by everyone at Bodymoor – is not a man for small talk.
Emery has said often that he is not at Villa ‘to waste time’ – and that means working 24/7. Along with Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta, Emery is one of the highest-paid managers in the top flight but co-owner Nassef Sawiris is getting plenty of bang for his buck.
Last season Emery said his players should be focusing on football so closely that they should dream about it – and he was only half-joking. Emery himself thinks of little else. Arriving at Bodymoor early and leaving long after darkness has fallen, the Spaniard has fearsome belief in his own ability and has transmitted that to his players. This alone is reason to believe Villa might just be able to last the course. Whatever the numbers might say.
