Hopes for an imminent resolution to the conflict in the Middle East have been dashed after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that negotiating a deal with Iran could “take a few days”, after Washington launched fresh strikes in southern Iran.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they retained a right to retaliate against what they called a “gross violation” of the agreed ceasefire between the two sides after Washington struck boats it claimed were attempting to lay mines as well as missile launch sites.
And in a sign of rising tension between both sides, Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that countries in the region could “no longer be a shield for U.S. bases”.
Both sides had previously signalled progress on a memorandum of understanding (MOU) aimed at halting the war and reopening the blockaded Strait of Hormuz, allowing for a 60-day window to negotiate more complex issues, including Iran’s nuclear programme.
Speaking to reporters on his plane in Jaipur, India, Mr Rubio stressed that the Strait of Hormuz “has to be open ‘one way or the other'” after strikes against targets in unspecified locations.
The conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on 28 February, has triggered an unprecedented oil supply shock, driving up prices for oil, fuel, fertiliser, and food. Iran responded by launching drones and missiles at Gulf states hosting US bases.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted, with only a few dozen vessels passing through daily, compared to the usual 125 to 140. Approximately a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas typically transits this vital waterway.
ran has been selectively allowing ships through, prioritising those linked to allied nations or those with whom it has government-to-government agreements.
Despite a ceasefire in place since early April, US Central Command announced on Monday that it had conducted fresh strikes “to protect our troops from threats posed by Iranian forces.” In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards stated on Tuesday that their air defence units had downed a US drone and fired upon another drone and a fighter jet, which they claimed had entered Iranian airspace over the Gulf region.
In comments posted on his Telegram channel during the annual hajj pilgrimage, Iran’s Supreme Leader stated: “The clock cannot be turned back, and the nations and lands of the region will no longer be a shield for American bases.” He added: “From now on, the slogans ‘Death to America’ and ‘Death to Israel’ will be the slogans of the Islamic nation and the oppressed people of the world, especially the youth.”
Donald Trump has previously cited these slogans to justify military action against Iran. On Monday, Mr Trump posted on Truth Social that talks with Iran were progressing “nicely” but warned of renewed attacks if they failed, stating it “will only be a Great Deal for all, or no Deal at all.”
Mr Trump also urged more Arab and Muslim states, including Saudi Arabia, to sign the Abraham Accords, which were brokered during his first term to normalise ties with Israel. Saudi Arabia’s long-standing position, however, is that it would not sign the accords without an agreement on a roadmap to Palestinian statehood.
Separately, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on Monday that Israel would intensify strikes against the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia in Lebanon. The Israeli military subsequently warned residents of the southern Lebanese town of Nabatieh to evacuate ahead of potential airstrikes.
While Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire in mid-April, Israel has continued airstrikes, asserting they are acts of self-defence against Hezbollah, which was not party to the truce.
Iranian and US officials have confirmed that recent indirect talks have yielded progress on an initial MOU, which would pave the way for further negotiations towards a final agreement. Iran’s top negotiator, its foreign minister, and its central bank governor were in Doha on Monday for discussions with Qatar’s prime minister regarding a potential deal, according to an official briefed on the visit.
Iran’s Tasnim news agency, citing a source close to the negotiation team, reported that parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqr Qalibaf was seeking agreement on the release of approximately $24 billion of Iranian funds frozen overseas as part of the MOU.
Iran’s Fars news agency cited a source indicating that the unfreezing of these funds was the last significant sticking point for the MOU to be finalised. Iranian sources suggest an initial deal would focus solely on ending the war on all fronts, establishing a 30-day framework for movement through the Strait of Hormuz, and potentially providing some financial relief, with more complex issues like Iran’s nuclear programme to be addressed in a second phase.
Mr Trump has stated his primary objective in the war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon with its highly enriched uranium, a claim Tehran consistently denies.
In early Asian trade on Tuesday, US West Texas Intermediate crude saw a slight increase from Monday’s closing price but remained down 5.5 per cent from Friday’s close.
