With only a few hours to go until the start of what was slated as the first direct peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in years – talks that Vladimir Putin himself called – it still wasn’t clear if the Russian president would actually show up.
For weeks, he has dismissed Ukraine’s proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, backed by the US and Europe, to allow both sides to start negotiations on how to end Europe’s biggest war since World War Two.
Instead, the Russian leader challenged Volodymyr Zelensky to direct talks in Istanbul “without any preconditions” on Thursday. If they go ahead, it would be the first meeting between the leaders since December 2019.
After brief initial reticence – and a few goading social media posts by Donald Trump – the Ukrainian leader called Moscow’s bluff by confirming that he will indeed attend in person.
But by Wednesday afternoon, Putin was still a “maybe” for the meeting he had so loudly called for. There was no clear information about whether he would be attending from Moscow’s side, with his spokesman teasing that the full delegation would be revealed on Wednesday night.
In Ukraine, senior officials said this all proved it was posture and pantomime.
“I’m sure that they will play a trick – someone will show up, but not Putin,” one senior source said. “That’s not their intention: to be open, transparent, direct, and finish the war.
“Putin is not strong in direct negotiations. He’s strong in playing games. He will play a card.”
Zelensky intends to attend, even if that means hosting an empty chair, in a powerful message to the world, the source says.
“That will show to the US, it’ll show to Europe again, Russians do not want to negotiate. A significant part of our strategy is to show our partners – European and across the ocean – that we are very much a team player.
“You asked us to do more on European ground. Here we are: all major European leaders, fully aligned, fully together.
“The ceasefire is not happening, but [Putin] offers direct negotiations? We are ready for that.”
Earlier this week, Trump urged Ukraine to attend the talks, writing on social media that it should agree to the Turkey meeting “IMMEDIATELY”.
All eyes remain trained on Istanbul to see if Putin will yield to Trump – and prove who wants peace more.
To add to the already potentially crowded room, Trump, on his whirlwind tour of the Gulf, said on Wednesday he himself was still considering whether to attend the talks in Turkey, but did not know whether Putin would go.
“(Putin) would like me to be there, and that’s a possibility… I don’t know that he would be there if I’m not there. We’re going to find out,” the US president told reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Qatar.
His envoy, Steve Witkoff, said he and secretary of state Marco Rubio would travel to Turkey on Friday for the Russia–Ukraine talks.
Trump desperately wants the two sides to sign up to a 30-day ceasefire, to prove his skill at diplomacy on a gobal stage as much as anything.
Zelensky also backs the 30-day plan, but Putin has said he wants to start talks first and then hammer out the details of a ceasefire. There could also be discussions about a major prisoner-of-war exchange.
It has been years since the warring sides met face to face with negotiators from Ukraine and Russia last meeting in Istanbul in March 2022, a month after Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Unconfirmed Russian and US media reports have said Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s foreign policy aide, will be in Istanbul and ready to meet their Ukrainian counterparts. But so far, no news on Putin himself.
The Ukrainians know the contrast between Putin’s reluctance and the image of Zelensky present and correct, ready and waiting, will curry favour with Trump and the world.
As the Ukrainian sources said: “A real leader says, ‘Listen, you offer a meeting Thursday—I’ll be there.’ Is there anything stronger that can be said?”
And so it remains to be seen if this is yet another cynical move to play games or the genuine start of some kind of talks.
