California’s governor made it abundantly clear on Thursday: he’s got his eye on the national stage.
Gavin Newsom bombarded Donald Trump and Texas Republicans at a press conference Thursday, where he threatened to erase any gains made by Republicans in a mid-decade redistricting push in the Lone Star State, while blasting his enemies as cheaters and cowards.
With a clear national audience in view, Newsom sought to prove that he is the brawler his party wants. His vow to “match fire with fire” was as much a shot across the bow of his fellow party leaders as it was a threat to the Republicans.
As the midterms come into view, Newsom is seeking to establish a baseline standard of aggression and pugnacity among his party’s rising stars that could very well eliminate many would-be contenders who are simply too old or too committed to the image of the bipartisan statesman to be viable candidates in the 2028 field. At the same time, he’s trying to keep his response to Texas’s mid-decade redistricting plan measured by avoiding a push to abolish California’s redistricting commission altogether.
One expert posited to The Independent on Thursday that Newsom’s bold stance had likely forced other governors with similar ambitions for the limelight to suggest the possibility of redistricting in their own states, even where it likely wasn’t possible.
“If Newsom is saying, ‘I’m going to go in and change California’s districts,’ you know, I think others who are on the White House, including Governor Pritzker felt maybe a reflexive need to say, ‘Well, yeah, we’ll consider that in Illinois as well,’” said John Shaw, director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. He added in an interview with Inside Washington on Thursday that he didn’t see a feasible path for Pritzker and the state’s Democrats to gerrymander any of the state’s three congressional districts held by Republicans out of GOP hands.
Newsom likely knows that even as he threatens to put up to nine congressional seats into Democratic hands with his own mid-decade redistricting, he’s putting other governors like Pritzker in a tough spot. Maryland, for instance, is another state run by a Democratic governor who is viewed as a possible White House contender. But even if Gov. Wes Moore gets behind a legislative push by Rep. David Moon, the state’s Democratic majority leader in the Maryland House of Delegates, his party would only see a maximum of one congressional seat change hands — assuming the courts even allowed Maryland Democrats to gerrymander the last GOP seat out of existence.
This is the moment that Gavin Newsom made his first real chess move of the 2028 Democratic presidential primary. And his press conference Thursday morning, flanked by local Democratic leaders, was as much of a campaign announcement as Donald Trump’s descent down a golden elevator in 2015.
As if hired to provide b-roll for Newsom’s eventual campaign ads, the presser was mildly disrupted by the arrival of what appeared to be dozens of ICE agents performing an immigration enforcement raid at the site of the governor’s event.
It’s no secret that the governor is testing the waters. He previously was spotted in South Carolina doing events alongside Jim Clyburn, the congressman and kingmaker most famous for breathing life into Joe Biden’s campaign in 2020. Clyburn’s star is fading within the party, as he faces criticism for his role in shutting down a primary in 2024 and his recent endorsement of Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral race. But he could still be the most important ally a Democratic hopeful could make in South Carolina, and in June introduced Newsom to a group of voters as one of “these candidates that are running for president,” per Politico.
With the redistricting fight, however, Newsom has found an issue where he has shown himself in clear contrast with the party’s more cautious, aging leaders in Congress, whom polling shows are facing plunging approval ratings among Democrats.
Two likely scenarios could happen from here. One, Republicans in Texas (facing national pressure from Republicans in other states fearful of seeing swing districts vanish overnight) may back down, handing Newsom a clear victory and allowing him to position himself as the first Democrat to score a tangible, unilateral victory against Republicans in 2025 — one where he wouldn’t have to share any of the glory.
The other is that Texas Republicans go through with their plans and Newsom, even potentially limited by the realities of state law and his ability to get voters to back his plan, comes out looking like the first, if not the only Democratic state leader who came back with an effective response.
With a quick response on a national issue, albeit from a position of opportunity, Newsom has set himself apart in the potential 2028 field. He may also have defined the terms of the race, something that will give him a clear advantage when the race beings in earnest.
