The pragmatist spun the wheel, hunched over the table and watched the roulette ball go. With Manchester City in their current guise, winning felt like red or black, 50-50.
Josko Gvardiol had not played a single minute since breaking his leg in January – in from the start. Savinho’s confidence on the floor after an omission from Brazil’s 55-man World Cup long list – in from the start.
Among six changes, five players – including the influential Phil Foden and goalscorer Omar Marmoush – were given the nod despite amassing just 20 starts together since New Year’s Day, an accumulative 85 matches.
Guardiola took a gamble and it came in. The gamble nudges the Premier League title race down to the final week of the season, something City would have taken earlier in the campaign, amid three consecutive draws four months ago when their manager had all but given up the ghost.
In failing to beat Sunderland, Brighton and Chelsea, City surrendered six points and sources indicated it was the sorest they had seen Guardiola for well over a year.
The bet on players lesser spotted is one that Guardiola must have felt needed doing to give themselves the best possible chance of winning all three matches from Saturday. He has been wary of that Wembley trip into going down to Bournemouth – City’s representations to move fixtures to alleviate fatigue flatly rejected – and this had been the obvious game earmarked to just get through unscathed.
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There had been some suggestion that Oliver Glasner had sold City something of a dummy by starting the majority of his preferred team, bar Adam Wharton and Ismaila Sarr, who had crept towards the red zone. But Glasner had never actually intimated that wholesale changes were coming at the Etihad, given the Conference League meeting with Rayo Vallecano in Leipzig is not for another fortnight.
The major alterations should come against Arsenal on the final day, something Glasner has been forthright about and is well within his rights to do. To be fair, a gracious Guardiola has voiced no complaints about the eventuality. He argues that City will only have themselves to blame if Mikel Arteta delivers a first title for 22 years.
Given what occurred at Everton last week, they can only hope for a favour and an air of inevitability lingered with the Manchester drizzle, the knowing that Arsenal probably beat Burnley and Arsenal beat a significantly weaker Palace than this Palace. It grew stronger and more anxious as Jean-Philippe Mateta saw an early goal disallowed and Chris Richards header over once beating Marc Guehi from a corner.
But Guardiola cannot think like that. He fidgeted with impatience as City struggled to find a groove, slowly picking a way into this encounter and wore the look of a proud dad when the second string – an expensive second string yet second string nonetheless – started playing peerlessly. Especially when Phil Foden got himself going, producing two assists before half time.
The first one of them, two minutes after the half hour, will have stirred feelings within Thomas Tuchel. Back to goal, Foden quickly scanned over his right shoulder, spotting Antoine Semenyo in the periphery. What came next was the sort of moment rarely seen from Foden over the last two years: a perfect no-look backheel, straight into Semenyo’s path and the forward struck across Dean Henderson.
Phil Foden looked the player of old with a sumptuous back-heel to set up team-mate Semenyo
That is the Phil Foden City and England need. And it is the Phil Foden both insist is still in there. Following up strong cameos against Everton and Brentford, this was further encouragement before Tuchel names his World Cup squad next Friday.
The second assist was not quite as awe-inspiring, although came from an incisive move with Foden taking up the sort of dangerous positions from which he thrives. Guardiola constantly bangs on about Foden needing to be closer to the opponent’s goal and here he was, about eight yards out, trying to gather a delightful Gvardiol clip. Foden could only knock it into the path of Omar Marmoush, a happy accident as the Egyptian did the rest.
Foden still takes that assist and now has 12 goal contributions in the league this term, more than Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka and Cole Palmer.
Given his form nosedived between December and the beginning of May, completely out of the team for large swathes of that, it is not bad evidence to present in front of Tuchel.
Gvardiol managed 58 minutes on his return, forcing Dean Henderson into a wonder save from a header, while Marmoush had more opportunities to add further gloss. Glasner went for it by introducing Sarr and Wharton, with the former pouncing on an uncharacteristically loose back pass by Bernardo Silva, only to fluff his lines.
The threat of Palace remained. Stalked City a touch. Guardiola could feel it, struggling or refusing to remain stationary before Savinho rounded off the night with only his second league goal since December 2024.
An inevitability of what is likely to happen over the coming days remains in the air, victory was never going to change that. But City are making Arsenal sit at the table, take their own chances – even if the stakes might be considerably more favourable.
