“As the National Party of Wales, the party’s aims shall be: to secure independence for Wales in Europe.”
Since its founding in 1925, independence has remained a core principle of Plaid Cymru – the above quote even forms the second line of its constitution. For the first time, Plaid secured the most seats in the next Welsh parliament as Labour lost control of the Senedd for the first time since devolution in 1999, with even first minister Eluned Morgan a casualty of Labour’s catastrophic losses. Yet in a change of tone from previous decades, Plaid’s leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has not led with an independence campaign, and more talk of a referendum has come from his political rivals, who have tried to warn voters that the party will introduce it through the “back door” once in power.
At Plaid’s annual conference in Newport in February, the topic was not raised once in ap Iorwerth’s speech, nor was it mentioned at the manifesto launch in Wrexham. At the last Senedd elections in 2021, the party promised to hold a referendum if it won a majority – a pledge that was quietly dropped from this year’s campaign.
Yet for the first time in history, Westminster is faced with the prospect of having a nationalist party running each of the devolved nations, all pushing for greater powers – so what are Plaid Cymru’s plans for independence?
Professor Laura McAllister, of the Wales Governance Centre, said: “Given that independence is the primary aim of Plaid Cymru, it is inconceivable that the party internally has not considered a longer-term strategy for advancing that goal. Having said that, the party leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has been categorical that the first term of a Plaid-led government would not be focused on independence.”
Instead, ap Iorwerth has prioritised the cost of living crisis; the state of the NHS, which has failed to meet targets to cut waiting lists; housing and a better deal for Wales under the current constitution. Their next steps do include a national commission, which would cost half a million pounds of the annual £27bn Welsh budget, which it says would “lay the foundation” for any future independence plans.
Recent polls have not shown much support for Welsh independence, with only 32 per cent in favour and 52 per cent against. While he remains a personal believer in the cause, ap Iorwerth admitted during his campaign: “I do not think now is the time to have that referendum, because the people of Wales are not telling us that it’s that time.” However, Prof McAllister noted that this tactic “is very much out of the SNP playbook from 2007”, and that polling support for independence is similar to the position in Scotland two years before the 2014 referendum that rejected independence.
With Labour suffering a humiliating defeat on Thursday, slipping to third place in its former red heartlands, Plaid Cymru had pinned the election as a “two-horse race” between itself and Reform UK, which is staunchly opposed to further devolved powers.
Many have viewed it as an election between those who view themselves as more Welsh-aligned, and others who view themselves as more British – with Nigel Farage even describing the Welsh language as “foreign”.
“In terms of voters motivated against independence, at present I think those will already be captured by Reform UK,” Prof McAllister said. “It’s harder to predict in the future as we do not know what a Plaid-led government might do and when. But were independence to become a defining issue in Welsh politics, as it is in Scottish politics, then I think we would see a fundamental realignment that cuts across left-right lines.”
